What's next for Dolphins, Tua, Watson after uneventful trade deadline?
The Miami Dolphins didn't trade for Deshaun Watson or get Tua Tagovailoa any help before Tuesday's trade deadline.
Amid swirling reports about their interest in one controversial, star quarterback, the Miami Dolphins allowed the NFL trade deadline to pass without making a move.
The headline that the national media will run with is what the Dolphins, at 1-7, did not do. Namely, that they didn’t pull the trigger on a trade for Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson, who has yet to play this season as he faces 22 civil lawsuits alleging sexual misconduct. That’s certainly big news considering that Watson rumors were as consistent in South Florida as afternoon showers. But with all the attention — both external and internal — being paid to Watson, the Dolphins failed to improve the roster around the signal-caller, whoever that may be in the future.
Elsewhere in the NFL, the Chiefs acquired linebacker Melvin Ingram from the Steelers, the Rams traded for pass-rushing ace Von Miller and the Saints added familiar running back Mark Ingram all in the week leading up to Tuesday’s 4 p.m. deadline. The Dolphins did nothing.
Unlike Kansas City, L.A. and New Orleans, Miami is not a contender, but the organization did have several reasons to try to improve its situation at the deadline.
Reason No. 1: That the Dolphins don’t even own their own first-round pick in this draft, eliminating any benefit of tanking the next nine games. In fact, because they don't own their pick, Dolphins decision-makers should be even more motivated to improve the team and avoid the embarrassment of allowing a potential top-three pick slip through their hands.
No. 2: By not trading for Watson, the rest of this Dolphins season is about evaluating whether Tua Tagovailoa is the long-term answer at the position. Acquiring more weapons or a veteran offensive lineman could have helped Miami do just that.
Instead, Tua is left standing behind a flimsy offensive line that has given him just 2.55 seconds to throw on average (which ranks third-worst in the league) and passing to a wide receiver group that has dropped the third-most passes in the league.
In the interest of not piling on, it is difficult to meaningfully improve a football team with mid-season trades. And already out valuable draft picks, GM Chris Grier may have determined that it’s not worth parting with more picks for journeymen players.
But he could have gone the other way, and trade contributors for picks that could have increased the team’s flexibility going forward.
Cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones could have been moved to contending teams looking to boost their secondary. Even oft-injured wide receiver Will Fuller may have had some value to a team that figures to play into the postseason.
After hoarding picks (and lighting them on fire) over the past three years, Grier has had precious little in an upcoming offseason that appears to be poised for “Rebuild, Take-Two.” Having sent their 2022 first to Philadelphia in March’s trade-down/trade-up, the Dolphins have San Francisco’s first-round pick (currently slated for No. 13), their own second, fourth and fifth-round picks and other late-round choices coming over from Pittsburgh, New England and Tennessee.
Dolphins 2022 Draft Picks
First (via San Francisco)
Second (own)
Fourth (own)
Fourth (via Pittsburgh)
Fifth (own)
Sixth (via New England)
Seventh (via Tennessee)
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Whatever. It’s not as if this front office has done much to maximize past draft picks. The good news for them is that they’ll have about $80 million in cap space, according to overthecap.com, and could create upwards of $100 million total.
That space will help them keep their own free agents, most notably tight end Mike Gesicki, who could command a 2022 salary in the $9 million-$11 million range. Defensive lineman Emmanuel Ogbah will also be a free agent, and Miami should want to bring back one of its top pass-rushers.
Beyond that Grier, perhaps feeling some warmth under his seat, should spend a bulk of that money on outside help. Though the Dolphins’ shopping history isn’t exactly inspiring, either.
“Everybody wants to focus on Tua, but the drafted quarterback is a low-odds gamble for everyone,” an NFL executive told The Athletic’s Mike Sando. “I’m more critical of the other moves.”
High-priced free agents such as Jones, Kyle Van Noy, Fuller, Shaq Lawson and Ereck Flowers are either no longer with the team or haven’t met expectations.
Maybe that’s on Grier for a mistake in talent evaluation. Maybe it’s on head coach Brian Flores for being unable to fold those talents in. Probably, it’s a bit of both.
There are holes all over the roster, from the offensive line to the defensive front seven to the skill positions. The challenge will be on the front office to determine how to allocate the draft and cap resources in order to fill as many of those holes as possible.
But the first order of business in the offseason could involve circling back to Watson.
According to multiple reports, the Dolphins had conversations with the Texans about compensation for Watson before the deadline, but wanted clarity regarding Watson’s legal issues before making a deal.
Watson, who has reportedly only waived his no-trade clause for Miami, has denied the allegations. A settlement of the civil suits by Tuesday afternoon was unlikely, and there is no timeline for when the grand jury investigation into 10 criminal complaints will be completed.
If those legal issues are resolved by the offseason, the Dolphins figure to get back in the mix. But even if Miami adds a bonafide top-five quarterback in Watson, it will be hard-pressed to meaningfully improve the rest of the roster.
After factoring in whatever draft capital it would cost to make a deal, Watson’s 2022 cap number would be $35 million — nearly $27 million more than Tua’s cap hit. Swap Tua for Watson, and Miami would go from roughly $80 million in space to $53 million before re-signing its own free agents.
Is Watson so good that he can compensate for the problems throughout Miami’s roster? Or can Tua, with strong play over the next nine weeks, convince the front office to double down on him?
With the trade deadline gone and not much help on the horizon, Tua’s play over the next two months will determine the direction of the franchise.