Tua's Lost City of Hope
The problem with the Miami Dolphins isn't Tua Tagovailoa, it's everything around him.
There’s an image from Sunday that I can’t shake. In the eye of a storm of Deshaun Watson reports and a six-game losing streak, it’s of Dan Marino and Tua Tagovailoa in full embrace in the middle of Hard Rock Stadium. Marino hugs Tua like Don Vito Corleone consoling Johnny Fontane. At one point, he literally holds up Tua’s chin. They chat, pat each other on the back, then Tua begins his warmup. You can’t hear what they’re saying, but the video is worth a thousand words. The one I keep thinking about is “fair.”
I know “fair” isn’t a word that is allowed to be used when talking about (insert Keyshawn Johnson’s voice) The National Football League, but tasking Tua to make lemonade out of chicken shit as a rookie behind that offensive line and under that front office and all those offensive coordinators in just 14 career games is unfair even for the cold standards of the shield. And so because Tua isn’t Thor, he is being thrust into rumors that the Dolphins could trade him for an accused sexual predator who a team as institutionally bad as the Houston Texans decided is too controversial to play.
Maybe Tua isn’t as good as Watson, or Justin Herbert, or Jacoby Brissett (OK, he’s better than Brissett. Just making sure you’re paying attention), but if he is, he’ll never get a chance to show it playing for a Dolphins team that has lost six straight and has a roster with more holes than the plot of “Manifest.” Here is a blue-chip quarterback who, by all accounts, has impeccable character and whose teammates rally behind, and because of the ineptitude around him he may never get a chance to reach his potential.
Frank Rossitano couldn’t have chosen a more ironic hat than the one Tua wore following Sunday’s loss. “Hope City” was emblazoned on the front. The future isn’t just hopeless in Miami Gardens, it’s hopeless too for Tua unless he can escape, or the Dolphins undergo major structural changes.
Let’s go back to that loss to the Falcons. Tua’s 291 yards ranked sixth among all quarterbacks in Week 7, his four touchdowns were tied with the most thrown, his eighth-best passer rating was just a hair behind Tom Brady’s and he completed 80% of his passes.
It’s unfortunate that one of his rare incompletions — his fourth-quarter interception at Atlanta’s 30-yard line — will be the pass most remember. Sure, it was a bad throw and an even worse decision, but it didn’t kill Miami’s chances. Here’s a play-by-play of what happened after that interception:
Miami’s defense forces a three-and-out.
Dolphins go 90 yards in 4:22, Tua completes six passes for 73 yards, including the touchdown to Myles Gaskin.
(Tua also makes a key nine-yard scramble on third down to keep the drive alive. Weeks after fracturing his ribs, he puts his body on the line instead of sliding. The kinda thing that gets teammates fired up.)
Emmanuel Ogbah strips Matt Ryan and Nik Needham recovers at Atlanta’s 40.
Tua completes five of six passes, including a dart to Mike Gesicki on third and 15 and the go-ahead touchdown throw to Mack Hollins.
After Tua’s interception, his teammates rallied around him… all the way until Atlanta drove 57 yards in the final two-and-half minutes to kick the game-winning field goal. That means something. It means his teammates are rooting for him, playing harder for him. That Gesicki, Hollins and Jaylen Waddle want to catch passes from him, not Watson. And it’s no secret that Dolphins fans would rather cheer for Tua than for Watson.
In the end, the defense lost the game. Miami had no answer for Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts, who on the final drive caught two passes for 51 yards to advance the ball to Miami’s 24. Y’know, the Kyle Pitts who the Dolphins effectively passed on in the draft?
In coverage against Pitts’ second catch that put the Falcons in field goal range was Xavien Howard. After an all-pro season in which he recorded 10 interceptions and forced quarterbacks into a 48.3 rating when throwing against him, Howard has been only fine this season. Opposing quarterbacks have an 89.4 rating throwing against him, and he has just two interceptions in six games.
Miami invested heavily in its cornerbacks, Howard and Byron Jones. As pointed out by the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson, Jones signed a five-year, $82 million contract with $57 million guaranteed and is rated by Pro Football Focus as the league’s 73rd best cornerback this season despite being among the six highest paid. The Dolphins are allowing the third-most passing yards per game.
That’s just one example of big spending gone wrong. Over the last two offseasons, the Dolphins have spent more than $172 million in guaranteed money in free agency, including an NFL-record $147.2 million in 2020. Suffice to say they aren’t getting the return on investment.
Perhaps feeling some buyer’s remorse, spending was more modest in 2021. Rather than address the league’s fifth-worst offensive line, per PFF, the Dolphins spent just $25.4 million in guaranteed money and opted instead to lean on draft picks and player development.
That hasn’t exactly paid off, either. Let’s go back to the tape of Tua’s interception.
Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett is at Tua’s feet in little more than a second. He blows right by Austin Jackson. Miami’s failed left tackle turned failed left guard provides as much protection as Facebook against Russian hackers.
Jackson was the 18th overall pick in 2020. Chalk it up to another first-round swing and miss. Miami’s draft history is full of them. Take a look at the team’s picks since 2016:
Laremy Tunsil: Traded to Houston for a 2020 and 2021 first-round pick and a 2021 second-round pick. Those picks became Noah Igbinoghene, Jaylen Waddle and Jevon Holland. Tunsil is a two-time Pro Bowl left tackle.
Charles Harris: Recorded 3.5 sacks in three years before getting traded for a conditional seventh-round pick.
Minkah Fitzpatrick: Traded to Pittsburgh for a first-round pick that became Austin Jackson. Fitzpatrick is a two-time Pro Bowler and first-team All Pro at safety. Weeeeeeeeee!
Christian Wilkins: Has underwhelmed early in his career, though he’s shown more flashes this season.
Tua Tagovailoa: This draft will be most remembered for taking Tua one pick ahead of Herbert.
Austin Jackson: Can I please stop typing his name?
Noah Igbinoghene: Hasn’t been able to get on the field, outside of the Week 6 loss to Jacksonville in which Howard and Jones were injured and he was burnt.
Jaylen Waddle: Early signs are solid, but Dolphins traded back from No. 3 and could have had Pitts or Ja’Marr Chase, who will probably win Rookie of the Year and is already breaking wide-receiver records.
Jaelan Phillips: The 18th pick is a backup on Miami’s official depth chart and played just 15 defensive snaps against Atlanta.
In all, that’s three busts, two players who have underwhelmed and a quarterback being dangled in trade talks. The only two Pro Bowlers are now playing for different teams. Giving up their own 2022 first-rounder — which is poised to land in the top five — in that “Rain Man” trade back from No. 3 to No. 6 will end up being one of the biggest blunders in franchise history. Ja Rule made better choices over the last half-decade.
Those picks were all made under Chris Grier, the man who took over as Dolphins GM in 2016 and is responsible for all of this sloppy spending, terrible drafting and potentially ruining Tua’s career.
In 2018, Grier hired longtime Patriots assistant Brian Flores as the team’s head coach in an attempt to import winning culture. Owner Stephen Ross and Grier have made Flores, plucked from Bill Belichick’s coaching tree, the mouthpiece of the franchise.
While Grier makes a habit of denying interview requests, Flores is trotted out to answer for the flawed roster the GM assembled. Here’s what you need to know: Grier is a Dolphins lifer who was hired by the organization in 2000. To illustrate how long ago that is, that’s a year before Pitbull signed his first major record deal. In 20 years, Pitbull has a Grammy, three Billboard Music awards and seven MTV music video nominations, and the Dolphins have not won a single playoff game.
Dysfunction is all Grier knows. The Dolphins wouldn’t recognize a good draft pick if it parachuted off the top of the Hard Rock hotel and crashed through the ceiling of Grier’s office. Even if Flores were Belichick incarnate and Tua was the second-coming of Marino, they wouldn’t stand a chance.
It’s one thing to accumulate draft picks and plug them into an Excel Spreadsheet, it’s another to actually be able to evaluate talent. At best, Grier has done a bad impression of Theo Epstein. At worst, he’s set the Dolphins back half a decade in their rebuild.
Of course, Flores isn’t without blame. He’s way too conservative as a play-caller and has failed to hire a quality coaching staff that can properly develop young players. But Flores was hired by Grier, who was hired by Ross. The buck stops at the top.
Ross made his fortune in real estate. He of all people should be able to recognize when the structural integrity of his investment is compromised. The Dolphins have no foundation on which to build. Tua can’t fix that. Watson won’t fix that. Ross, Grier and Flores certainly haven’t.
The issue here isn’t the quarterback, it’s everything around him. “Hope City” isn’t a statement. It’s a plea. Wishful thinking from inside a crumbling institution.
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