Why the 20-Game Mark is Important for Pat Riley and the Miami Heat
Riley during a press conference Tuesday discussed whether the Heat will consider spending into the luxury tax, Bam Adebayo's improvement, his advice for Tyler Herro and more.
MIAMI — Ahead of Thursday’s season opener against the Milwaukee Bucks, team president Pat Riley reflected on the Miami Heat’s first-round sweep to the hands of the future champs.
“The series was awful,” Riley said during his Tuesday press conference at FTX Arena. “We got our heads handed to us.”
The last team the Heat played in the 2020-21 season will be the first one they play in 2021-22. Only now Miami returns having licked its wounds, straightened its tie and other mixed metaphors. Still, this rematch kicks off a tough opening schedule that sends these Heat on the road for 13 of their first 20 games. Right away, they will be tested.
“We have a very challenging start,” Riley said. “Conditioning is going to be very important.”
Not only are those first 20 games challenging from a scheduling perspective (it’s the league’s fifth-toughest schedule, according to Positive Residual), it also includes benchmarks against top teams in the Bucks, Brooklyn Nets, Dallas Mavericks, Boston Celtics, Utah Jazz, Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers.
At the end of those first 20 games is something of a milestone. By Nov. 27, the Heat should have a clearer idea of where they stand among the NBA’s hierarchy and how to further augment the roster — and whether or not to pay the luxury tax.
“I think you have to prove first that you’re the kind of team that can play at that level and then you can make that investment,” Riley said. “We've talked a lot about it, and we'd be ready to make a move if we have to. But let's get through the first 20 games and see where we are."
With 14 players on standard contracts, the Heat still have one open roster spot available but are a few shekels ($436,554, per Spotrac) from crossing the luxury tax threshold. Adding another player, even on a veteran minimum, would send them into the tax.
Paying the tax this season would make avoiding the repeater tax extremely difficult. Teams must pay the repeater tax, which includes exponential tax increases by the dollar, when it is over the tax at least three times in four seasons.
The Heat finished the 2019-20 season as a tax team, and it will be difficult to avoid the tax going forward with rising salaries on the books for Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson, along with Tyler Herro’s looming extension.
“Paying up to the tax, it has never been a mandate but it’s been always on my mind,” Riley said. “I’m not going to just say, OK, every year we’re gonna go into the tax and we don’t win and Micky [Arison] is writing these big checks. I don’t think that’s fair. But when we have a real contender, which I think we have, then we’ll entertain that and I think we’ll entertain it this year, too.”
There are reasons for optimism despite the tough schedule. Miami went 5-1 in the preseason (with the lone loss coming in Atlanta, when most of the key rotation players were given the night off) and posted the league’s fifth-best 3-point percentage, eighth-best rebounding rate and saw a discernible uptick in pace. All areas in which the Heat struggled last season.
Much of the credit goes to newcomers Lowry, P.J. Tucker and Markieff Morris, all of whom Riley and GM Andy Elisburg prioritized in the offseason because their skills complement Butler and Adebayo.
“It reminds me a little bit of what we did with Shaquille and Dwyane in 2006,” Riley said, referencing the additions of Jason Williams, Gary Payton, James Posey and Antoine Walker that helped the Heat win their first title. “I think we did the right thing.”
Lowry has made an impact by pushing the tempo. Morris gives the team much-needed size and versatility off the bench. Tucker, Riley said, is “three times more than what I thought he was. If I wanted to put on a defensive clinic, I would use him as an example.”
Those additions raise Miami’s floor but, as Riley said, internal development will be what raises the team’s ceiling from playoff lock to title contender.
“One of the great keys to this team is the development of Bam, Tyler [Herro], Duncan [Robinson] and Max [Strus],” Riley said. “It ain't gonna be on Jimmy and Kyle and Bam to score all the points. I think a lot of it might come from the other guys.”
Riley during his press conference discussed each of the “other guys.”
On Adebayo, who has promised to be more aggressive in looking for his own shot this season, Riley said: “I think you might see a flat-out scorer this year. He's gotten extraordinarily better than last year, not just a little."
On Herro, who regressed in his second season after becoming something of a household name after a scorching performance in the bubble, Riley said “He is a workaholic in trying to refine his game” but added some advice.
“There comes a time in a young players’ career when there’s enough talk,” He said. “Go out there and prove it. I think he will."
On the decision to re-sign Robinson to a five-year, $50 million contract: “Right now the 3-point shot has to be really dealt with on both ends of the court. How are you going to defend it? And then you better have three or four guys who can make them when it counts."
And on Strus, who appears ready for a meaningful rotation role after strong showings in summer league, training camp and preseason. “His agent is on the phone all the time trying to extend his contract."
Miami’s starting lineup of Lowry, Butler, Robinson, Tucker and Adebayo is among the most complete in the league. However, the bench is thin. Herro, Strus, Morris and Dewayne Dedmon will play meaningful roles but it will be tough for this team to sustain a long-term injury to any rotation player.
Victor Oladipo will return eventually and his surgeon is optimistic he can participate in full-contact drills in November. A fully functional Oladipo would be ideal insurance to an injured star and a boost to the bench. A slasher and versatile defender who shot 37% from 3 in his last healthy season, the 29-year-old can make an impact on and off the ball.
But Riley declined to comment on Oladipo’s status and whether or not his health would influence the decision to pay the luxury tax.
It’s unclear what other options could be available during the season, either through a trade or on the buy-out market. Would the Spurs buy out Thaddues Young? Could Derrick Favors and the Thunder part ways? What’s gonna happen with Kevin Love?
Those decisions are a ways away. For now, Riley’s focus is on Thursday’s game against the Bucks and how new vets mix in with a promising, young core.
“I’m excited to see how it all works,” he said.
More notes:
Riley acknowledged that Coach Erik Spoelstra "has a tough decision” at the end of games between Robinson and Herro. "Tyler is probably gonna be on the floor because he's a multi-faceted player." Riley made a nod to Herro’s added 10 pounds of muscle but also said Herro has improved on his fundamentals. It’s worth noting that Spoelstra mostly went with Robinson to close halves in the preseason.
Prior to the media session, Heat PR said that Riley would not make a statement on the league’s ongoing investigation into potential tampering by the organization. During a media session Monday, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said the league had no update on the investigation into Miami’s sign-and-trade for Lowry.
Here’s the full clip of Riley’s answer to my question about paying the luxury tax.
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