What has to go right for the Miami Heat after the All-Star break
The Heat will have to climb out of the play-in race and back into the playoff picture. If they don't, they will face some tough decisions this summer.
For the Miami Heat, this season hasn’t gone as hoped as injuries, fatigue and regression from key players has dulled their chances of a return to the Eastern Conference finals.
But if the Heat have been anything this season, they’ve been resilient. Miami enters the All-Star break as the only team in the league with a winning record that does not have a positive point-differential (a perfectly representative 0.0). They lead the NBA in clutch games played and wins in those close-game situations. In the eyes of Heat players, there is optimism that their best basketball lies on the other side of a much-needed break.
“We got 23 [games] to go to get to where we want to get to,” Jimmy Butler said. “It’s all about being healthy, which this break will do for us.”
“We’ve been down a lot of guys most of the season,” Caleb Martin said. “So it will be good to get everybody fresh from the jump.”
Expected to return soon after the break are Tyler Herro, Victor Oladipo, Omer Yurtseven, Nikola Jovic and Kyle Lowry (more on that situation later). Butler and Martin could use some time off to let their bodies recuperate.
The Heat will also make some decisions regarding bought-out free agents in the coming days. There could be half-a-dozen reinforcements on the way for Miami’s stretch run into the playoffs.
“I like having the sprint right after All-Star break,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “The free agent signings will be done shortly after the break. I want to know who my team is going into that last stretch.”
The Heat will hope to carry over the league’s fifth-rated defense and perseverance forged in their close games. They’ll also hope to address some of the issues that have held back what was a Finals contender less than a year ago.
Butler probably said it best: “We’re going to really have to show who we’re made of and who we are as a group.”
Let’s take a look at the key storylines and trends facing the Heat after the All-Star break.
Will the Heat, finally, add a new rotation player?
The Heat haven’t added a veteran rotation player in eight months – a relative eternity in NBA terms. There’s no staying put in the NBA, only moving back or forward. The Heat, after having the best record in the East last season, have slipped to seventh entering the All-Star break at 32-27.
After failing to make an addition at the trade deadline, the buyout market may offer a reprieve. Kevin Love is reportedly negotiating a buyout with the Cavaliers and the Heat are among his expected suitors. Having fallen out of the rotation in Cleveland, Love could find a regular role in Miami.
A true big man who can space the floor, rebound and participate in Miami’s ball-movement offense, Love could slot in right away as a reliable backup center behind Bam Adebayo and could play next to Bam in certain alignments.
If the Heat do sign Love, they’d still have another roster spot available. Could that go to Russell Westbrook? The Heat are reportedly doing their homework on Westbrook, who is still under contract with the Jazz. Perhaps they could sign Serge Ibaka to provide even more depth in the frontcourt. John Wall is available. Old friend Goran Dragic could be too, if Westbrook ends up in Chicago.
Will Kyle Lowry play for the Heat again?
Hovering over all of this is the Kyle Lowry situation. Lowry is expected to miss the rest of the month with a knee injury, and could miss more time after.
There’s rampant speculation that the relationship between the Heat and Lowry has soured in part due to Lowry’s poor play this season and the Heat openly shopping him before the deadline.
If Lowry isn’t available to the team going forward, finding another experienced point guard could become a priority.
It could also represent the end of the Lowry era in Miami.
Where will the Heat finish in the East standings?
Of Miami’s 23 remaining games, 12 are at home and 11 are on the road. The Heat are much better at home (19-10) than on the road (13-17). If they win at that clip, it’s reasonable to expect the Heat to go 12-11 or 13-10 to close the season.
That would give the Heat 44 or 45 wins. At best, that should be enough to compete for the sixth seed and avoid the play-in tournament. At worst, it would mean an appearance in the play-in tournament.
Of course, the Heat could out-perform that projection. After starting the season 11-14, the Heat won 21 of 32 before dropping their last two games before the break. If they make a key addition or two and stay healthy, another run could propel the Heat up the standings.
The Heat are currently a half game behind the Knicks for the No. 6 seed and 2.5 games behind the rebuilding Nets for No. 5. They are five games back of the No. 4 seed Cavs, and catching them at this point does not seem feasible.
FiveThirtyEight.com projects that Miami will finish fifth at 45-37, good enough to avoid the play-in and earn a first-round matchup against the Cavs.
Reason for optimism: The new starting lineup
With Lowry away from the team, Spoelstra has promoted Gabe Vincent to starting point guard and that five-man group (Vincent, Herro, Butler, Martin and Bam Adebayo) has a plus-20.5 net rating in 98 minutes.
That would rank among the best five-man lineups in the NBA. Even if/when Lowry returns, that could be enough of a reason to keep Vincent as the starter and bring Lowry off the bench (Miami’s starting group with Lowry is plus-2.7 in 293 minutes).
It’s been a small sample size but there’s reason to believe the success is real. Vincent as a permanent starter would be new, but Vincent the player is not. He’s in his fourth year with the Heat, is beloved by his teammates and started several playoff games when Lowry was sidelined last season.
His willingness to shoot has been a welcome addition to an offense that runs through playmakers in Butler and Adebayo. The supporting cast needs to be quick to shoot. Vincent averages more catch-and-shoot attempts per possession than Lowry, and nearly two more field-goal attempts than Lowry per 100 possessions. Lowry’s tendency to pass up open shots to dribble into the defense didn’t always generate better looks and frustrated Heat coaches.
Meanwhile, Lowry could find success as a sixth man. If he’s willing to embrace that role, he’d provide Miami’s 23rd-ranked bench with a much-needed identity. Pairing him with Oladipo and, perhaps, Love would provide the Heat’s second unit with playmaking, shooting and defense.
Shooting is still a problem
One year after shooting an NBA-best 37.9% from 3-point range, the Heat have plummeted to 28th in 3-point shooting, making just 33.4% of their shots from distance.
What happened? Go down the line and all of Miami’s volume 3-point shooters have seen their numbers slip: Herro (39.9% → 36.9%), Martin (41.3% → 36.1%), Strus (41.% → 33.8%), Lowry (37.7% → 33.3%), Vincent (36.8 → 32.9%) and Duncan Robinson (37.2% → 32.9%).
Chalk it up to natural variance and bad luck, maybe. Or perhaps last season was an anomaly. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. It was always unwise to rely on a platoon of undrafted players to space the floor for two stars who don’t shoot 3s.
That said, I still believe there’s a better 3-point shooting team in here somewhere. Robinson, back from finger surgery, will rediscover his shot eventually. Martin, who Spoelstra has called “a great shooter” should bounce back with some needed All-Star break rest. Herro will get hot again.
Spoelstra likes to say the team’s shooters are “ignitable” but has been waiting for them to catch fire all season long. There aren’t many games left. If they do start making shots, it could come just in time for a playoff run. If not, the Heat will fall short of last season’s success.
The Heat could face big decisions this offseason
If the Heat fail to make a sustained postseason run, tough decisions are coming.
Extensions for Butler and Herro kick in and turn the Heat into a luxury-tax-paying team overnight. Owner Micky Arison has a history of paying the luxury tax for contending teams, but it’s doubtful he’ll sign off on paying $19 million-plus in luxury taxes for a team that can’t compete at the top of the conference.
Shedding the salaries of Lowry ($29.6 million next season) and Robinson ($18.1 million) would help relieve the tax payments but will likely cost some sort of asset that Miami was unwilling to part with this past deadline.
Meanwhile, the Heat will have decisions to make on their own free agents. Strus, Vincent and Omer Yurtseven will all be unrestricted free agents, and it’s unlikely the Heat will be able to bring all of them back.
All of this, while clearly needing to upgrade the roster. Spend one of two moveable first-round picks (a third if protections are lifted on one owed to Oklahoma City), and that’s one less pick the Heat have to trade for a power forward or star player. Don’t use those picks to offload Lowry or Robinson, and risk going into next season with Run It Back Squad 2.0.
Then there’s the third option. If a deal to trade Lowry/Robinson and a pick for a high-end starter (or star) does not materialize, the Heat might have to consider trading Butler for a return of picks and young players resembling the star trades we’ve seen since the summer. The Heat don’t want to do that, but it’s a possibility if things go a certain way.
The only option that should be deemed unacceptable is the choice the Heat made going into this season: Doing nothing.