What Happens If The Heat Don't Win It All?
Finding a star player who can put the Miami Heat over the top.
Let’s imagine June 20th, after the NBA Finals have concluded, and pretend that the Miami Heat have not won their fourth ever championship. What now?
Despite outside surprise that Miami is in first place in the East coming out of the All-Star break, for this organization anything short of a title is a disappointment. Change would almost certainly be on the way.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s analysis, the Heat have a 10% chance of winning the Finals, behind only the Celtics (21% — really?), Suns (18% — makes more sense) and Bucks (13% — OK) and tied with the Nuggets (10%). The Ringer gives Miami an 8% chance of winning the whole shabang, behind the Suns, Warriors, Jazz and Celtics.
In other words, the Heat have a realistic shot at this thing despite not having a “star” on par with Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo or Nikola Jokic. Like the Suns, the Heat are in possession of the top spot in their conference because of their balance. Only the Heat and Suns rank in the top eight this season in offensive and defensive rating. Both boast plenty of depth, COY-caliber coaches, elite 3-point shooting and captains in Jimmy Butler and Chris Paul who are not superstars, per se, but are top-12ish guys who set the emotional table of their respective teams.
The Heat are the most balanced team in the East, and they will need that collective effort to move past stars such as Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid and Kevin Durant. For what it’s worth, starless teams can’t not win, but it’s rare.
Take a look at the last 20 years and only seven teams won the title without a player in the top five of MVP voting that season:
2003-04 Pistons (Ben Wallace finished seventh in voting)
2005-06 Heat (Dwyane Wade finished sixth)
2010-11 Mavericks (Dirk Nowitzki finished sixth)
2013-14 Spurs (Tim Duncan and Tony Parker tied for 12th)
2016-17 Warriors (which seems weird, but Curry and Kevin Durant did not place in the top five. You know who did? Isaiah Thomas.)
2017-18 Warriors (the fatigue was real)
2018-19 Raptors (Kawhi Leonard finished ninth)
Let’s do the logical thing and discount those two Warriors teams, chalking it up to the fact that they had the greatest collection of talent ever assembled and to give any single player credit was impossible. A true anomaly. Heck, we could even remove the 2019 Raptors for the purpose of this exercise, considering that Kawhi was already a legit superstar in everyone’s eyes.
That leaves just four teams in the last two decades that won the championship with Miami’s current recipe, and only the 2014 Spurs standing out during this era of super teams.
The Suns, who had a 2-0 lead in last season’s Finals, could have been the most recent example. But that’s kinda the point, isn’t it? Giannis overpowered them on both ends in four-straight games and snatched the Larry O’Brien trophy with his massive hands.
There’s no doubt that the Heat will come out with a great game plan and compete in every series, but is that enough to knock off multiple Giannis-level stars? Here’s how the current bracket could play out:
First Round
(1) Heat
(8) Hawks/Hornets
(4) Cavaliers
(5) Bucks
(3) 76ers
(6) Celtics
(2) Bulls
(7) Raptors/Nets
Second Round
(1) Heat
(5) Bucks*
(3) 76ers*
(7) Nets*
Conference Finals
(1) Heat
(?) 76ers*/Nets*
Finals
(1) Heat
(?) Suns/Warriors*
In order to win it all, the Heat could have to get through three top-five dudes (Giannis, Embiid or Durant, and Steph) and that doesn’t include complementary stars in Kyrie Irving or James Harden.
I’m not saying it’s impossible. I’m saying that if the Heat don’t win the title this season, it’s because of their lack of top-end star power.
So, let’s return to our original question: If the Heat don’t win the championship, what happens?
Zach LaVine will be a free agent and Irving, Harden and Bradley Beal each have player options, but the Heat won’t have the cap space to sign any of them.
All the Heat will have is a $10.3 million mid-level exception, which will be enough to add a high-level contributor such as Kyle Anderson, Robert Covington or Mitchell Robinson, or retain Caleb Martin. But more depth doesn’t necessarily solve Miami’s problem.
There’s also the sign-and-trade route that Miami used to acquire Butler and Kyle Lowry and should not be overlooked. Any such deal would likely include shipping out Duncan Robinson’s $16.9 million salary for next season and sweetener.
But a sign-and-trade would entail (a.) that free agent wanting to come to Miami and (b.) that player’s team being motivated to play ball.
There have been no recent reports tying LaVine, Irving or Harden to Miami, and all three are a good bet to stay with their current clubs. Perhaps Beal — who has long been tied to the Heat — could finally be convinced to leave Washington, but he’s also given no indication that he will.
And still, while all of those guys are All-Star-type scorers, none of them are MVP-type league-shifters. There’s a real and massive difference.
As far as a trade, it’s worth noting that Miami before the trade deadline unlocked protections on a pick owed to Oklahoma City and can now include an unprotected 2022, 2023 and/or 2028 first-round selection in a trade.
They could also pick for another team in the 2022 draft, trade that player and still deal picks in 2023 and 2028. So the Heat have virtually three first-round picks (not including pick swaps) to use to land a star.
According to Sports Illustrated’s Howard Beck, there are rumblings that the next star could be on the move this summer.
The teams that have a star are feverishly doing everything to keep them happy. The rest are plotting to poach them. Around the league, team executives are already bracing (and/or plotting) for the next disenchanted star to ask out, with speculation focused on Zion Williamson in New Orleans, Damian Lillard in Portland and Donovan Mitchell in Utah.
Among those names, Lillard or Mitchell would be ideal matches for the Heat. Lillard, as he’s shown during his nine years in Portland, is a bonafide star capable of lifting a team to greater heights. Mitchell is a proven playoff performer well on his way to stardom (and after receiving a meek response in All-Star voting from the Salt Lake City faithful could be looking for a bigger sports market). Both would thrive playing next to Lowry, who can take on more challenging defensive assignments and facilitate their scoring.
Despite whatever perceived motivation the plateauing Trail Blazers or Jazz might have to part with their star guards, it won’t happen unless Lillard or Mitchell specifically demands to be traded. So that needs to happen first.
Of the two, Mitchell is much easier to acquire from a salary-matching perspective.
Lillard is due to make $42.4 million next season, which means the Heat would have to include Robinson, P.J. Tucker (assuming he opts into his $7.3 million deal), Tyler Herro and a few of the Gabe Vincents, Max Struses and Omer Yurtsevens.
Meanwhile, Mitchell is due only $30.3 million. The Heat could get there with just Robinson and Tucker, without sacrificing the rest of their depth. The Jazz would ask for Herro. Most, or all, of Miami’s eligible picks would be included in any deal.
But here’s the thing: How good is Mitchell, really?
Lillard is clearly among the upper crust of NBA stars. Put him on a 50-win team and it’s easy to imagine him winning MVP.
Mitchell isn’t yet on that level and it’s unclear if and when he will be. His timeline works with Bam Adebayo, but the Heat want to win now and are confident enough in Adebayo and Herro to take the reigns in the future.
If the Heat are seeking to simply get better, Mitchell is an upgrade. To be additionally clear: Mitchell is very good. He, along with Adebayo, would ensure Miami a place at the top of the East for years to come.
But if the Heat are seeking a win-now star to put them over the top next season against teams led by Durant, Embiid, Giannis, Steph and Jokic, then Lillard is not just the best answer, he’s the only answer.
To land Lillard would require sacrificing most of the future and all of the depth that makes this Heat iteration special. But if Miami falls short and Pat Riley decides he needs a capital-S “Star,” then everything could be on the table to try to pry Lillard from Portland.
Wonderful articles Wes, long time listener and so glad to be reading your material every morning too. I moved out of Miami and it's a great way of keeping me close to home.