Victor Oladipo is showing why he's the biggest X-factor in the NBA playoffs
Oladipo has the potential to erase the Miami Heat's two biggest weaknesses.
Of the two violent head nods, Kyle Lowry’s was most telling.
It came after the first 5 1/2 minutes of Tuesday night’s game. In that time, Victor Oladipo drove by Kevin Huerter for a right-handed scoop layup. On the next possession, Oladipo juked out De’Andre Hunter, faked the ball behind his back and floated a right-handed layup off the glass over 6-foot-10 Clint Capela. Next possession: Oladipo rolled off a screen and settled into a one-legged foul-line jumper. Sixty seconds later, the Heat running off a rebound, Oladipo came down the left side, spun into the middle of the floor, pushed John Collins back into the restricted area and came up from under the basket with a reverse layup.
In about two minutes, Oladipo scored eight of Miami’s first 14 points in Tuesday night’s 97-94 win over the Hawks to advance to the second round of the playoffs. More important than leading the Heat to a close-out win in place of the injured Jimmy Butler, Oladipo is looking every bit of the X-factor the franchise hoped he would be this season. His emergence could help swing who comes out of the Eastern Conference.
After his spinning reverse layup, Oladipo celebrated by shaking his head back and forth as if to say Doubt me if you will. I’m here to prove doubters wrong. The headshake was steady. Confident.
Meanwhile, on the sideline dressed in casual clothes, Lowry shook his head as if it were a Magic 8 Ball attached to his neck. With Butler standing behind him, Lowry cheered on his teammate, belting out a “YEAHHHHHH” as his head nearly created enough lift to send him into the FTX Arena rafters.
But, hey, there was a lot to cheer about. This version of Oladipo could help Lowry win his second championship.
For Oladipo, it had been two years since he last played in a playoff game, and this 23-point performance marked a major milestone in what has been a four-year odyssey in which knee and quadriceps injuries stripped him of his All-Star status.
“That reminded me of Indiana Vic a little bit,” Bam Adebayo said after the game.
“I’m still that guy,” Oladipo told me when he finally made his return to the court in March after 333 days of rehab following his second quadriceps surgery.
Oladipo’s stats aren’t quite at the level of his two All-Star seasons (2018-2019) with the Indiana Pacers but, on this team, they don’t need to be.
Oladipo’s average stats in 10 regular-season and postseason games with the Heat
Minutes: 23.2
Points: 12.8
FG%: 46.5
3P%: 38.3
Rebounds: 3.2
Assists: 3.5
Steals: 0.8
Oladipo’s average stats in All-NBA season
Minutes: 34.0
Points: 23.1
FG%: 47.7
3P%: 37.1
Rebounds: 5.2
Assists: 4.3
Steals: 2.4
More important is that he shows the burst, shot-creation and defense that landed him on the All-NBA third team in 2018. His eight-point outburst was a good example of what he can provide on offense.
It also helps that Oladipo has been efficient in his limited role, shooting close to or better than his clips from his best seasons. In terms of shot selection, he can still force things a bit. When he’s on a roll, that’s fine. But when the shot isn’t going in, it can interrupt the flow of Miami’s offense. Here against the Hawks in Game 4 — his first of two appearances in the series — Oladipo came off an Adebayo screen and ignored Max Strus flaring above the 3-point arc. Rather than swing the ball and try to get a good look, Oladipo stepped back into a contested 3-pointer.
The game was still close at this point, and there was plenty of time on the shot clock. No reason to do this. Oladipo shot 3 for 10 overall and 0 for 5 from 3-point range in the game.
But the Heat are content to live with these occasional forced attempts because Oladipo is one of few players on the roster who can create his own look.
Against the Hawks, the Heat did most of its scoring damage running off turnovers and defensive rebounds, but that’s won’t be the case as the playoffs go on. They’ll need more one-on-one shot creation against the 76ers or Raptors in the next round, and especially against the championship-caliber defenses of the Celtics or Bucks should they make the Eastern Conference finals.
Much in the same way Butler and Tyler Herro are given the freedom to hunt a shot, Oladipo will too so long as the returns are efficient in the aggregate.
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But what makes Oladipo such an important swing factor is his defense. In eight regular-season appearances, the Heat seldom had Oladipo guard the opponent’s most threatening scorer. But in his start against the Hawks Tuesday, Oladipo guarded Trae Young on about 18 total possessions and allowed Young to score just one point, per NBA.com’s tracking data. Hunter, who had a game-high 35 points, did not score once when guarded by Oladipo.
It’s telling that Oladipo played 36 minutes Tuesday — the most he’s logged all season. His wind and conditioning appear to be back, which helps his elite defensive instincts come to the surface. Oladipo is constantly fighting over screens, showing on drives and putting his arms in passing lanes. He’s a perfect fit alongside other defensive disrupters such as Butler, Adebayo, P.J. Tucker and Lowry.
While we haven’t seen those five on the court together in the playoffs (and for only six possessions in the regular season), lineups featuring Oladipo and some amount of other Heat starters had a stifling defensive rating of 87.7 in two games, per Cleaning the Glass.
Yes, the sample size is small. It’s too early to say that Oladipo is back to his All-NBA self. But it’s the two-way ability he’s flashed since scoring 40 in the regular-season finale that could help alleviate Miami’s most glaring weaknesses:
Halfcourt shot creation
Soft spots against predatory offenses.
During a March 21 loss to the 76ers, the Heat had no answers for Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris hunting Herro on switches. Oladipo did not play that game and Miami gave up 33 points in the fourth quarter as Philadelphia won by seven. Should the Heat meet the 76ers in the second round, you can guarantee Doc Rivers will cue up a series of pick-and-rolls against Miami’s weaker defenders.
Now Erik Spoelstra can throw Oladipo into the mix. If Harden, Embiid or Tyrese Maxey are abusing one of Miami’s shooters, Spoelstra can put Oladipo into a lineup with other high-end defenders and wipe away those opportunities. And unlike with streaky offensive players such as Gabe Vincent and Caleb Martin, swapping Oladipo for Herro or Strus doesn’t sacrifice a ton of shot creation.
The same can be said for potential matchups against Jayson Tatum’s Celtics and Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Bucks. Ditto for Western Conference contenders such as the Suns and Warriors that want to seek out mismatches. Theoretically, Oladipo is a perfect fit alongside Miami’s other core players.
And it’s here that we might as well get into the Oladipo-Butler stuff. After a Skip Bayless comment that indicated that Butler does not want to play with Oladipo went viral, Oladipo joked in a media session after Game 4 that “Jimmy hates me guys. That was cute.”
Bayless went so far as to say Butler has a personal issue with Oladipo. I haven’t heard anything of that sort and have a hard time believing that Butler has any beef with Oladipo.
What is true is that after Miami’s four-game losing streak and sideline quarrel in March, Butler made it clear to the coaching staff that he needed more space on offense. Oladipo, though he’s shooting a healthy percentage from distance, is not treated as a shooter by opposing defenses and did not provide that space. At that point, it was difficult to find room for Oladipo and he ended up being a casualty of the revamped rotation. So did Butler have an issue with Oladipo? No, not directly.
But Oladipo’s conditioning has steadily improved, he’s gotten the emotions of his return out of his system and has benefited greatly from Miami’s multiple practices during the play-in tournament week. Oladipo now is a smoother fit than Oladipo a month ago.
Does that mean Oladipo will be part of the regular rotation going forward? It’s partly matchup dependent. But if Spoelstra is committed to playing Tucker as a small-ball center when Adebayo is off the floor, Oladipo could soak up Dewayne Dedmon’s vacated minutes. If Martin doesn’t find his offense (he scored 1.2 points on 18.2% shooting in the first round), Oladipo could take his spot.
Right now, Oladipo is still a luxury for the No. 1 seed in the East. But come Round 2 or beyond, and he could be the X-factor the Heat need.