The 'Succession' Scale for Heat Players With the Most at Stake
Which Miami Heat players have the most at stake in the 2022-23 season?
*This column contains spoilers*
As Brian Cox stood on the Emmy’s stage Monday night, the microphone caught him muttering “move it along, move it along” during show-runner Jesse Armstrong’s rambling acceptance speech with the sort of tumbleweed-common annoyance typically expressed by Logan Roy, the patriarchal character Cox plays in “Succession,” which had just won the Emmy for best drama. It was, at once, both familiar and disturbing.
Here is Cox, by all accounts a jolly dude, annoyed by, basically, his boss, and telling him to wrap up his nervous sputtering for the industry’s most cherished prize. By now Cox, 76, has nothing to lose. He’s decorated, has a sweet TV gig and he’s old. Wow! Maybe he is turning into Logan Roy. More than anything, he has next-to-nothing to lose. Everything for Cox is gravy.
So that brings us to the point of this column. Like Cox/Roy, some people have very little at stake. Other “Succession” characters, such Cousin Greg, have absolutely nothing to lose. Then there’s those at risk: Such as Kendall Roy (a lot at stake, like his life, for instance) and Tom Wambsgans (betrayed wife and, by association, her siblings, and has put everything he has worked for since moving to New York from a farm in Minnesota on the L-to-the-OG and Cousin Greg horse).
Wait, sorry. Thaaaaat brings us to the point of this column. Now that the Emmy’s are over and NBA training camps are two weeks away, let’s use characters from the award-winning series “Succession” to rank the Miami Heat players from most at-stake to least at-stake in 2022. Here are the tiers:
Kendall: Most at risk. Because of age, legacy or status, every moment, game, and decision has a lot riding on it. This season is seemingly make-or-break.
Tom: Next-most at risk. His life doesn’t depend on it, but his promising career does. He bet on himself and has one shot to make it work.
Logan: Slight risk-level. Has accomplished a lot, but still loves the game and wants more.
Greg: No risk. Fell ass-backwards into wealth. Currently deciding between dating the hot PR rep or the hot countess.
*Extreme Kendall voice* Let’s, uh, erm, dice these veggies dudes…
Kendall tier: Do-or-die
Jimmy Butler: This might surprise you. Jimmy Butler?! You mean the Jimmy Butler who dragged the Heat to within a shot of the Finals and is universally regarded as a warrior and is scoring tons of sick sponsorships? That Jimmy Butler?
Yes, that Jimmy Butler. Hear me out. Jimmy is currently Kendall at the end of Season 2. He shocked the world on national TV, when he nearly toppled a juggernaut with sheer will-power and big cojones. He seems, right now, to have nothing but runway in front of him.
But look again. Jimmy is 32, dealing with years of wear and tear. His stats are still impressive but indicate the aging process has begun. His rebounding and steal numbers — usually the first signs of aging — were the lowest they’ve been since he came to Miami. He hasn’t played 60 games since 2019.
Jimmy needs help, but when he looks around the Heat locker room, he can’t be sure of who is willing to go the distance with him. Kendall was betting that one of his siblings, Roman or Shiv, would join him in his fight against their dad. Jimmy needs a teammate, namely Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry or Tyler Herro, to step up consistently. At this point, the track record doesn’t suggest either will.
The window is open now, but he’s still the underdog and may not have much time left to do the one thing he’s always wanted to do: win a championship. He’s come close, twice, but maybe close was as close as it was going to get.
Victor Oladipo: A few bad breaks has left Oladipo, a former 25-year-old All-NBA guard, at 30 years old and desperately grasping on whatever he has left. People around Oladipo this summer tell me he looks better than last year, and last year was impressive for a guy who basically spent four years rehabbing from injuries.
The Heat signed Oladipo to a new two-year, $18 million deal in July but that’s just window-dressing, like naming Kendall COO. As evidenced by an underwhelming free-agent market, Oladipo still has much to prove. The second year of the deal is a player option, and this season is Oladipo’s best chance to land one last lucrative contract and carve out the role he really wants.
Tom tier: Do-or-move on
Tyler Herro: Even if Herro signs the extension we all expect him to receive, it won’t change much. Herro has been dangled in trade talks for stars since his rookie season and could be again as soon as next summer if he doesn’t show he can hang with the top dogs.
Herro, the reigning Sixth Man of the Year who averaged 20.7 points, is deserving of a promotion and is expected to start opening night. The Heat need to figure out what they have in him. Is Herro merely a volume scorer who can anchor bench units, or can he be the shot-creator the team needs next to Butler? Herro needs to improve his efficiency and playmaking marginally, and his defense drastically. He and his coaches need to figure out how he can be effective without the ball.
Herro made a substantial leap last season, but he needs to make another if he’s going to be a starter. This could be his last chance to do so in Miami.
Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Omer Yurtseven: In a sneaky subplot to this season, all three of Strus, Vincent and Yurtseven have proven they are NBA rotation players but all are also playing on expiring contracts. If they continue to develop, it’s possible but unlikely the Heat will be able to bring all three back next season.
This might be the closest thing we have to the “Succession” siblings: the sake of the team depends on them getting along, but they also know they are in competition with one another to see who sticks around. Here’s where they stand:
Strus is a 3-point specialist who flashes moments of off-the-dribble bounce and competitive defense. Ideally, he’s a 3-and-D cog in Miami’s machine. To do so, he needs to maintain his top-1% shooting while continuing to improve on defense.
Vincent is a playmaking guard who has some dynamic scoring capability, stepped in for Lowry during the playoffs and handled the offense well while defending his position at an impressive level. At 26, being solid is fine, but does he have the upside? This season is about proving he can be Miami’s long-term answer at the position.
Yurtseven is more raw but also has the highest ceiling. He’s an NBA-ready rebounder and has shown in Summer League that he can shoot the 3-ball. Theoretically, he’s a fit next to Adebayo. But Yurtseven needs to get stronger, quicker and more disciplined in order to stay on the floor.
Haywood Highsmith: Technically signed a two-year deal but the second year is non-guaranteed. Highsmith impressed Heat coaches during Summer League and will compete for minutes at power forward. He’s got the opportunity. He just needs to capitalize. If not, his is an easy roster spot to churn.
Logan tier: Love of the game
Kyle Lowry: Heat fans might think Lowry has a lot more riding on this season than he actually does. For them, Lowry getting in shape and bouncing back from a disappointing first season in Miami is key to the Heat improving.
For Lowry, however, what happens in Miami means very little to his legacy. According to basketball-reference.com’s Hall-of-Fame probability tracker, Lowry has an 85.7% chance of being inducted. That’s higher than stars such as Kawhi Leonard, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and even Butler.
Lowry’s resumé is irreproachable: championship in 2019, Olympic Gold in 2016 and a six-time All-Star. While another ring would secure his chance of making the Basketball Hall of Fame, his importance to Toronto and helping expand the NBA’s popularity in Canada will close any gap that may exist.
Even if he says this season is championship or bust, the thrill for Lowry is in the chase.
Bam Adebayo: This is another instance when fan expectations don’t align with reality. Fans want Bam to evolve, to become an offensive force capable of carrying the scoring load. And yeah, Bam morphing into Joel Embiid would help the Heat a lot, but also Bam is already helping the Heat a lot.
In reality, Bam is an all-league defender and widely-regarded as the third or fourth-best center in the NBA. Already a top-25 player, all-star and Gold medalist, Bam is more than good enough. If the Heat fail, it won’t be because Bam didn’t take more 3s. We all expect him to get better and more consistent offensively (take 15 quality shots per game, as outlined by Pat Riley in his end-of-season press conference) but that’s just what competitors do.
His status among those who control his fate is unquestioned, perhaps more so than anyone else on the roster. He’s considered by the organization a foundational piece, untouchable in trade talks and highly valued. No matter what happens this season, Bam will be just fine.
Dewayne Dedmon: Dedmon’s career is nothing short of miraculous. Because of his mother’s religious beliefs, he wasn’t allowed to play basketball until his senior year of high school. He got on to the team of a small college and eventually transferred to USC, then went undrafted in 2013. He signed a series of training camp deals and 10-day contracts before finally latching on with the Spurs in 2016. Somehow, he’s been in the NBA for a decade and has made nearly $40 million. Dedmon made his pile.
Udonis Haslem: Over the last several years, Haslem would have qualified for the Cousin Greg tier. But this season is different. Haslem admitted that returning for his 20th season was a tough decision, and that he did so for his late father. That he is playing for his father’s memory, for the city of Miami and to reach a milestone 20th season with one team — something only Dirk Nowitzki and Kobe Bryant have done — is nothing short of a legacy play.
Cousin Greg tier: Happy to be here
Duncan Robinson: As a competitor, Duncan Robinson probably would like to have last season back. In the first year of a five-year, $90 million contract, Robinson opened the season in a shooting slump and, by the playoffs, was out of the rotation. Heading into training camp, his role with the Heat is very much in question and he’s a candidate to be traded. But I’ll go back to three words: NINETY MILLION DOLLARS.
Nikola Jovic: A rookie facing no expectations other than to work hard and improve.
Caleb Martin: What makes Caleb different from Max, Gabe and Omer? The fact that he signed a three-year deal this summer and has essentially been gifted a starting spot because the Heat never replaced P.J. Tucker in free agency, that’s what.
Yes, Caleb works hard and was among the better storylines for the Heat last season. But a starter for a conference finals contender? I don’t know. Like how Cousin Greg just sorta ended up running parks (or something?) for Waystar Royco, Caleb ended up getting a corner office. Now he just needs to keep it.