The Miami Heat's star-chase has a deadline, and it's coming up

Miami's chances of landing another super star aren't looking good.

For all the speculation about Kevin Durant or Donovan Mitchell getting traded to the Miami Heat, it appears for now that neither is likely to be playing home games at FTX Arena next season. Heat fans should be prepared for this to be the team, and for it to potentially take a step back.

This is because the Heat don’t have, or aren’t willing to part with, what those super stars’ current teams are demanding in a trade. Namely, at least one All-Star-caliber young player and a sizable return of draft capital.

While the Heat do have Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro on the roster, sources told the Miami Herald that the front office is “disinclined” to include Adebayo in a trade for Durant. Meanwhile, as ESPN’s Zach Lowe wrote recently, Herro’s trade value varies depending on the team. It's believed the Nets don’t value Herro enough to make him the centerpiece of a Durant deal.

So the Heat, it seems, must be prepared to enter this coming season with a roster that will return up to 13 players from last season’s group that advanced to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals and features only one new player — rookie Nikola Jovic, who doesn’t figure to make a huge impact in his first season and certainly won’t be able to replace P.J. Tucker as the team’s starting power forward any time soon.

The Heat have to be OK with that, and hope internal improvement rather than impactful acquisitions helps lift the team to the top of the conference.

It’s worth pointing out that this was the plan all along. Re-sign key free agents (Victor Oladipo, Dewayne Dedmon and Caleb Martin) to tradeable deals, maintain flexibility, don’t part with any more valuable draft picks and wait for the next star to grow disgruntled.

“If there’s one out there, throw him to me,” Riley said of acquiring another star after the season.

And then the Utah Jazz by trading Rudy Gobert signaled a rebuild to the rest of the league, Durant requested a trade from the Brooklyn Nets and the Heat got to work.

As recent as earlier this month during Las Vegas Summer League, the Heat believed they had a chance to land Durant, according to multiple sources. That belief has since fizzled. General manager Andy Elisburg did meet with Nets general manager Sean Marks in Las Vegas but did not come materially closer to a deal.

The sticking point appears to be Adebayo. The 25-year-old center can anchor a defense for years to come, making him a worthy return in a Durant trade.

On the other hand, Miami knows it will have a hard time constructing an elite defense without Adebayo, and relying on 36-year-old Kyle Lowry, 32-year-old Jimmy Butler and 34-year-old Durant is a shaky proposition.

Instead, the Heat hoped the Nets would settle for a deal centered on Herro and draft compensation. But recent reports that the Boston Celtics have offered Jaylen Brown for Durant have likely dashed that possibility. Miami also knows it cannot compete with the New York Knicks’ bevy of draft picks for Mitchell.

So the Heat will wait. Again. But how much longer can they afford to be on star standby?

Yes, they’ll be able to include players such as Oladipo, Martin and Dedmon at the trade deadline, but there’s a problem with waiting for the regular season to trade for a star: Herro’s extension deadline.

If Miami signs Herro to an extension before the regular season, he becomes extremely difficult to trade due to the “poison pill provision” that inflates Herro’s cap number for whatever team to which he’s traded. In order to avoid this issue, some have proposed that Miami simply shouldn’t extend Herro. However, that risks alienating the reigning Sixth Man of the Year when he could also be the team’s best chance to make a leap this season.

The Heat could match any offer made to Herro when he becomes a restricted free agent next summer, but do they really want the question of his contract to linger over the locker room all season? Look at how that turned out for Deandre Ayton and the Phoenix Suns.

As such, the deadline for the Heat to land another star is the same as their deadline to extend Herro: Just before the start of the regular season. That star doesn’t appear to be coming.

Do the Heat pivot and look to make a less-splashy move for a fifth starter? Doing so would mean parting with their already-limited amount of first-round picks and, depending on the return salary, could thrust them into the luxury tax.

If the Heat had a do-over of the offseason, would they try harder to retain Tucker or make a stronger move to sign a useful free agent such as Otto Porter Jr., T.J. Warren or Kyle Anderson?

The Heat did not approach the beginning of the offseason like a team that was within a shot of making the Finals. Instead of re-signing Tucker, triggering the hard cap and using picks to supplement the core, Miami kept the powder dry on its resources. Riley in his press conference seemed passively interested in a star, but his actions speak louder, and they ooze of desperation.

The Heat know their window is closing — and that perhaps the window on this group is already closed. To prop it open, they need another capital-S Star, and they need that player to come to Miami before the window closes for good.