The Kevin Durant trade provides the Heat with clarity and, perhaps, tough decisions
With Durant headed West, the Heat's dream target is off the table. Where do they turn now?
Last night’s witching-hour trade of Kevin Durant will force the Heat to make some tough decisions.
The Heat have been waiting on clarity on the Durant front and, late Wednesday night, got it when the Nets traded Durant and T.J. Warren to the Suns for Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Jae Crowder, four unprotected first-round picks and a pick swap.
It was the kind of haul worthy of a 13-time All-Star who was in the midst of anther MVP-caliber season, but a haul the Heat never had a chance to emulate.
Still, once Durant put Miami on his list of preferred destinations when he first demanded a trade last July, the Heat decision-makers had to try. They always knew whatever chance they had of landing KD was a long-shot but, even if it was a 10% chance, a 5% chance, it was worth waiting out the process for such a talent. After Kyrie Irving opted into his contract and Durant rescinded his trade request, league insiders openly questioned Brooklyn’s house of cards and wondered when — not if — all this drama would come to a head again.
Then a series of events: ESPN broke the story on former Suns owner Robert Sarver’s workplace misconduct, setting in motion his sale of the team. Billionaire Mat Ishbia bought the Suns, was given control before the trade deadline and, like most new owners, sought to make a splash. Kyrie, having not received the extension he wanted from the Nets, demanded a trade a week before today’s 3 p.m. deadline and was dealt to the Mavericks.
With Kyrie and Sarver gone, Durant faced a decision about his future. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reported, “The Nets' position on not trading Durant as it really was kind of last summer may change. That is an interesting development that has happened over the last 48 hours since the Kyrie trade.”
Hours later, the Suns’ new owner got his splash and Durant got his trade.
And so ends an eight-month stasis for the Heat. Durant would have transformed Miami into a championship contender overnight. Instead, it’s the Suns whose championship odds took a leap. Prior to the league-altering trade, the Suns were the Heat’s Western Conference doppelganger.
Built around a bright young talent and a veteran gunning for his first ring, the Suns’ role players didn’t quite step up as hoped and injuries derailed the first half of their season. Like the Heat, the Suns’ championship window had appeared to be closing. Fast. Durant props that window open — wide open — again.
So now the Heat must move on. To what? That is the question. Chase another star? Go all-in with this current core? Rebuild it’s asset base?
If they decide to wait for another star, then who? Bradley Beal and Zach LaVine are names connected to the Heat, but Beal and LaVine aren’t in the same class as Durant.
Adding either one, given what the Heat would have to give up to match salary, wouldn’t put Miami on the same tier as Milwaukee, Boston, Philadelphia or possibly Cleveland.
A Herro for Beal swap this summer, for instance, would be settling and likely disastrous for the Heat’s future given that they’d be paying nearly $100 million for Beal and Jimmy Butler alone.
A lot of Heat fans want Toronto’s OG Anunoby. He’s a good player. But his hot 3-point shooting has cooled to 36%, he has little shot-creation ability and, while he’s an awesome perimeter defender, perimeter defense might be last on Miami’s list of team needs. He won’t do much to lift the Heat from 26th in offensive rating. If Toronto really is seeking two or three first-round picks, that is not an all-in move that makes sense for the Heat.
Damian Lillard is the sort of player who could put the Heat over the top. He’s 32 but averaging a career-high 31 points per game. He’s a knock-down 3-point shooter who spaces the floor more than any guard outside Golden State. Slotting him alongside Butler and Bam Adebayo is a dream fit.
But Lillard remains firm on his commitment to Portland and the Trail Blazers have returned the favor. Hoping he becomes available puts the Heat in the same stalled position they were with Durant and risks wasting precious more of what’s left of Butler’s prime.
And even if Lillard did demand a trade between now and the start of next season, the Heat might not have enough to swing a trade. Based on the Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell and Durant deals of the last eight months, the going rate for stars of that caliber appears to be three-to-four first-round picks and multiple young, talented players.
The Heat can trade up to three first round picks (if they lift protections on a future first-rounder owed to Oklahoma City, which will cost another asset) and, as promising as Herro may be, he is their only young player with trade value. Adebayo, central to any contending roster build, is off the table. Last summer’s first-round pick Nikola Jovic is unproven.
The other two options are not as appealing but are more realistic.
Ditch the star chase and use whatever limited draft capital to finish the build around this current core.
Trade veterans for assets that put the Heat in better position to land a superstar.
Let’s start with the first option. The Heat could, for instance, use a 2023 pick to trade for a young, starting power forward such as Atlanta’s John Collins or Charlotte’s P.J. Washington.
Both players would slide into the frontcourt next to Adebayo, which would allow Caleb Martin to move back to his natural wing position and end Miami’s annual search for a starting power forward.
The Heat would get better, compete for the No. 4 seed in the East for the next couple of years and, if injuries and some luck go their way, make a few deep playoff runs.
As Butler ages out of his prime the Heat would still have three good-to-very good young players, more draft picks would become available to them and, in a few years, they could re-enter the arms race.
Then there’s the second, unseemly option, but it’s one the Heat front office may have to consider this offseason. What if they trade Butler?
Butler, right now, is the one responsible for Miami’s title chances. As great as Bam has been, we know Butler is capable of dragging a team to the brink. Trading Butler for assets would shut the window immediately.
It could also yield a return of multiple picks and young players that the Heat could then use to trade for the next, younger disgruntled star. Or maybe one of those picks or players pops and becomes the star the Heat need.
Either way, Miami’s decision-making runway and optionality expands.
It’s also risky. Jimmy Butler is still awesome. No one wants to face his Heat team in the playoffs. The only guaranteed return when trading a star of Butler’s caliber is hope, and hope is what got the Heat in this situation in the first place.
What direction the Heat go in is up to them to decide. But it’s clear that to compete in the current Eastern Conference — with Giannis’s Bucks, Tatum’s Celtics and Embiid’s Sixers — will take major reinforcements. With Durant headed to Phoenix, the best-possible reinforcement is off the board.