The Heat are being tested for the first time in a while
Sunday's loss marked Miami's first consecutive loss since the four-game losing streak in March that threatened its season.
Prior to this past weekend’s pair of losses to the Philadelphia 76ers, the Miami Heat appeared to be cruising to the Eastern Conference finals. However, Joel Embiid’s return has not only shifted the balance of the second-round series, but also presented the Heat with their first real challenge in more than a month.
Sunday night’s 116-108 Game 4 loss in Philadelphia, following Friday night’s Game 3 loss, marked the first time the Heat have dropped consecutive games since losing to the Brooklyn Nets on March 26. Now Embiid’s return — combined with the series turning to Philadelphia and ice-cold shooting from distance — has put the Heat in the rare position of facing a must-win game Tuesday, when the series returns to FTX Arena for Game 5.
That Nets loss at the end of March was the last of a four-game losing streak memorialized by a sideline quarrel between coach and star that proved to be the pivot point in Miami’s season. After that loss, the Heat revamped rotations and buckled down for the final stretch of the season. They won six straight games, secured the No. 1 seed and rolled through the Atlanta Hawks in the first round.
Going into Friday night, the Heat had an average margin of victory in the playoffs of 12.9 points per game and figured to be on their way to facing either the Milwaukee Bucks or Boston Celtics in the conference finals well-rested.
Things feel a lot different now for the Heat. Embiid’s presence in this series has re-energized James Harden (31 points on 8 of 18 shooting on Sunday) and revealed cracks in Miami’s defense. The Sixers are shooting 48.5% from beyond the arc in the past two games, while the Heat have incomprehensibly missed 51 of their last 65 3-point attempts.
“Doesn’t even sound like us,” Bam Adebayo said after the game, referring to the fact that the Heat led the league in 3-point shooting percentage during the regular season.
“We’re gonna take the same shots next game and they’re gonna fall because that’s the way we’ve been playing all year long,” Jimmy Butler said.
Perhaps it comes down to a simple reversion to the mean. If both the Heat and Sixers shoot closer to their averages from distance, the Heat probably have a 3-1 lead going back to Miami.
But that’s not how the playoffs work. Seven games might feel like a long stretch but, in the grander scheme, it still represents a small sample size. Shooters can get hot for a game or two and change a series. That’s what happened here. The Sixers over the weekend had to win to keep their chances to advance alive. Now it’s Miami on the ropes, and simply counting on those shots going down won’t be enough to re-take control of the series.
“That’s part of the playoffs,” Erik Spoelstra said. “Sometimes you don’t make shots but you still have opportunities to grind out and win ugly. We didn’t do that tonight. We were close. We were banging on the door.”
The Heat had a chance to win Sunday because Butler was sensational: 40 points — including 17 in the third quarter — on 13 of 20 shooting to keep his team in the game. The Heat trailed by just four to start the fourth quarter but, with Butler on the bench, the Heat went scoreless for the first three minutes of the period and Philadelphia’s lead ballooned to 12. Harden had the hot hand, scored 16 points to close the game, and that was that.
There are things to like for the Heat. Fronting Embiid to deny him touches in the paint has mostly worked. They are winning the turnover and rebounding battle and the overall shot quality has been solid. The Heat don’t need to make drastic schematic changes.
Rather, the challenge in front of the Heat is a mental one. They can’t let misses infect their confidence or effort. They have to stay committed to moving the ball and generating good looks, rather than settling for pull-up jumpers. Occasional breakdowns (like allowing Tobias Harris to get behind the defense for a late backdoor cut on Sunday) need to be cleaned up.
“We’re talking about two really good teams,” Spoelstra said. “This is high-level competition and it’s a slim margin for error on both sides and you just have to make plays at timely moments.”
The last time the Heat found themselves at a crisis point, they responded by playing the best basketball of their season. A losing streak and public sideline argument that could have broken many teams only strengthened Miami’s resolve.
Now the Heat find themselves in a similar situation. Only this time, the stakes are higher. Lose Tuesday night and suddenly the 76ers will have a chance to end their season in Philadelphia on Thursday. This next game is a must-win and, with the potential MVP of the league on the other side and Harden rediscovering his vintage form, it will be the Heat’s biggest test yet.
“We’ll figure it out,” Adebayo said. “This team is committed to winning. We’re competitors. We’ll bounce back.”