One Week Later: Heat Experimenting with Lineups and More Observations
Plus, a new trade name emerges.
Five observations from the Miami Heat’s week that was…
1. Lineup Experiments, Big and Small
Because of injuries and matchups, the Heat deployed a few interesting lineups this weekend by either doubling down on size or taking a center off the floor altogether.
With P.J. Tucker sidelined with a knee issue Friday against the Hawks, Miami opened up the second half with Omer Yurtseven starting alongside Bam Adebayo in the frontcourt. In the 6:46 they played together, the Heat were outscored 17-13. While this isn’t enough time to make any conclusions, it’s worth taking a look at the particulars for a pairing some Heat fans have been clamoring to see more of.
In their minutes together, Adebayo was mostly relegated to the dunker spot while Yurtseven used the paint to screen and roll. Yurtseven scored twice in that time, while Adebayo didn’t attempt a single shot in Miami’s half-court offense while Yurtseven was on the floor.
This was a case of Adebayo differing to a young player who hasn’t seen much playing time since Adebayo returned from thumb surgery early in the week. But it’s also not sustainable. Adebayo needs the ball in the middle of the floor, where he can make direct attacks at the basket or facilitate for others. There’s just not much he can do from that spot on the baseline. Unless he or Yurtseven becomes a reputable 3-point shooting threat, this pairing doesn’t have much runway. Yurtseven will one day play regular, meaningful minutes, but don’t count on Adebayo and Yurtseven as the frontcourt of the future.
Then on Sunday, the Heat matched up and went small when the Lakers played LeBron James at center. In the eight minutes without a true center on the floor, the Heat were outscored 15-13. Those lineups consisted of Tucker at center surrounded by shooters and made sense against a super-small Lakers squad that was trying to speed up the tempo and play in transition. The fact that Miami managed to tread water with a look it hasn’t used much this season is encouraging, but I wouldn’t count on it becoming a regular thing. Spoelstra will likely only turn to it in specific matchups.
2. Bam Hasn’t Disrupted the Offense
There were questions about how Adebayo’s return would impact the Heat’s revved-up offense that emerged in his 22-game absence.
Well, in the four games since Adebayo’s return, the Heat have posted superior offensive and defensive ratings and have remained stable in terms of pace and assist percentage.
Four games with Adebayo
ORTG: 114.1
DRTG: 107.4
Pace: 94.5
AST%: 67.3
3PA/Game: 33
3P%: 38.6
22 games without Adebayo
ORTG: 113.4
DRTG: 109.8
Pace: 95.8
AST%: 68.6
3PA/Game: 38.2
3P%: 39.9
“I don’t think it’s changed,” Adebayo said about the offense Sunday.
That’s not entirely true. There’s an obvious drop in 3-point shooting — roughly five attempts per game. But subtract the Heat’s game against the Raptors in which they attempted just 24 3s with Toronto running them off the line and attempts are down just a hair. The biggest difference might end up being in the paint, where the Heat are scoring an average of four more points per game after third-to-last in that area without Adebayo. The truth is, the Heat likely won’t be shooting nearly 40 3s a game anymore, but the offense will be more diversified.
3. Is Christian Wood a Trade Name to Watch?
On Monday the Athletic reported that the Heat have “been one of the more persistent teams” talking with the Rockets about 26-year-old center Christian Wood. There’s some stuff to chew on here so let’s get into it.
First of all, Wood was one of the players I considered for last week’s column because his $13.6 million salary works as a match for Duncan Robinson’s $15.6 million salary. I didn’t include him, however, because he’s not a match for the Heat.
Theoretically, Wood could play next to Adebayo. He’s shooting 36.5% on 3-pointers and has experience playing power forward. But as we covered with the Adebayo-Yurtseven pairing, Wood mostly occupies the middle of the floor and would overlap with Adebayo.
Clogging the paint any further isn’t the best way to maximize Adebayo, and that’s even before considering Jimmy Butler. This is what makes Tucker such an ideal fit. A majority of his shots come from the corner and he’s a more versatile defender than Wood. Tucker spaces the floor and allows Adebayo and Butler to work the paint on offense without sacrificing physicality on defense.
To be blunt, I’m dubious of this report. While I’m sure the writer, Kelly Iko, was offered the Heat’s name by the Rockets, this appears to be more positioning on Houston’s part. Here’s a peek at how the trade sausage is made.
It’s possible the Heat called about Wood just to gauge interest or price, but things like that happen all the time. Heck, the Heat could have been calling about another player — perhaps Eric Gordon — and just got to chatting about Wood. The way this stuff works IRL isn’t like the trade machine — your guy for my guy, click, what do you say? Calls between GMs are much more fluid, and often specific deals aren’t even discussed.
Anyway, it wouldn’t shock me if a Rockets official is throwing out the Heat as an interested party in order to kick up some interest in Wood before the trade deadline. Wood carries with him a reputation of not being the hardest worker, which makes this an odd match. But because rival front offices respect Miami’s judgement, perhaps a leak like this could relieve some concerns. Hey, if the Heat are interested, maybe we should check him out. At least, that’s the idea.
I haven’t asked any Heat officials directly about Wood, but I’d be surprised if there was real interest here.
4. “Discord Duncan”
In three games since resuming the Long Shot podcast, Duncan Robinson is 14 of 29 (48.3%) from 3-point range and has scored 53 points. I tweeted this stat out Sunday night and, as Reddit user Novasail pointed out in response, Robinson has started a Discord server with the resumption of his podcast. Thus, Novasail came up with the nickname, “Discord Duncan.”
Prior to his last podcast, Robinson hadn’t posted a full-length show since Nov. 11 as he worked his way through a season-opening shooting slump. And I get it. From an optics standpoint, it’s maybe not the best look to be recording podcasts with rival players when shooting nearly five percentage points worse from 3-point range.
However, the numbers show Robinson actually shoots better when recording.
“Discord Duncan”: 17.7 points per game on 48.3% from 3-point range
No Pod Duncan: 11.8 points per game on 35.6% from 3-point range
I’d say the evidence is pretty overwhelming in favor of the podcast, and the nickname.
5. Butler’s Triple-Double Record in Context
With Sunday’s 20-point, 12-assist, 10-rebound performance against the Lakers, Butler notched his 10th career triple-double as a member of the Heat, breaking LeBron’s previous franchise record of nine.
“I think it’s a blessing,” Butler said of the record. “Any time you get in the same sentence with Hall of Famers like D. Wade and LeBron and what they’ve done for this organization and for this city, it says a lot.”
To put Butler’s record into context, Dwyane Wade had just five triple-doubles in his 15 seasons with the Heat and LeBron recorded his nine in more than twice as many games (294) as Butler has played in Miami (139). The Heat have never had a player put up triple-doubles with this frequency. Not even close.
Wade: One triple-double every 189.6 games
James: One triple-double every 32.7 games
Butler: One triple-double every 13.9 games
It also translates to winning. The Heat are 8-2 in Butler’s 10 triple-double nights.
“It just shows you his skill set that he’s able to impact the game in so many different ways,” Spoelstra said.