Next Steps After Victor Oladipo's Return to the Heat
Victor Oladipo has successfully returned to the Heat. So what do we make of his first couple of games and his potential role going forward?
In the moments after completing his first NBA game in 333 days, Victor Oladipo during an interview with the Miami Heat sideline reporter choked back tears as he talked about the emotional night. After two injuries and a long rehab, the reaction was understandable. But now the return is complete, the excitement has worn off and the tinkering begins.
Oladipo has logged 31 up-and-down minutes over two games. Including tonight’s matchup against the Clevland Cavaliers, the Heat have 15 games remaining this season. That’s not a ton of time for Oladipo to knock off nearly a year of rust, but it should be enough for the Heat to make decisions about his role in the playoffs and for Oladipo to show what he can do before becoming a free agent this summer.
So even though Oladipo’s rehab appears to have been a success, the stakes are still high. After all, the Heat are the No. 1 seed in the East with legitimate title hopes. When they flipped a first-round pick, Kelly Olynyk and Avery Bradley for Oladipo before last season’s trade deadline, they did so in the throes of an injury and pandemic-riddled season. Four games later, on April 8, Oladipo reinjured his quad and didn’t appear on the court again until this week.
Oladipo returns to a team in a much different place than the one that ended up getting swept in the first round. The Heat are deep, have a chisled identity and don’t necessarily need Oladipo. But their ceiling is, without a doubt, higher with an effective Oladipo, who Bam Adebayo reminded media the other day is a former All-Star.
"In my opinion, once he gets his groove back, he could be that Oladipo that we saw when he was in Indiana,” Adebayo said the morning of Oladipo’s debut. During his two All-Star seasons in Indiana, Oladipo averaged 21.7 points on 17.4 shot attempts, 5.3 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 2.1 steals in 33.3 minutes per game. It’s hard to see Oladipo getting the same opportunities he did while playing for a Pacers team that had viewed him as a franchise player.
So far he’s playing about 15 minutes a night, and that’s probably all he’s going to get. When I asked Erik Spoelstra about the process of ramping up Oladipo’s minutes he replied, “There is no ramp-up.” OK, so what does this mean? It means that however Oladipo’s role evolves will have to come within the confies of 15 minutes a night. That’s roughly 256 minutes Oladipo can be expected to play before the postseason begins.
“It’s going to be an important time and a big time for us to experiment,” wing Caleb Martin said.
Here’s what we know so far about Oladipo’s role in Miami: He has played much more off the ball than on, he hasn’t shot much (just 13.9 field goal attempts per 36 minutes, the lowest since his rookie season) and, most tellingly, he’s played all of his minutes alongside Tyler Herro.
The idea here is clear: Herro is the scorer and Oladipo the stopper. Theoretically Oladipo, who was named to the league’s All-Defensive team in 2018, is an ideal complement to Herro. The Sixth Man of the Year favorite is averaging north of 20 points per game but is still a liability on defense. Coupling him with Oladipo as a backcourt platoon ensures there’s a strong defender present to cover up Herro’s defensive weaknesses. It’s an extremely small sample barely worth mentioning, but Miami’s defensive rating with Oladipo on the court is 90.8 — very good in 31 total minutes mostly against reserves.
But according to NBA.com’s matchup data, Oladipo hasn’t been guarding opponents’ top ball-handlers. Instead, he’s spent most of his time against the Suns on Jae Crowder, Torrey Craig and Landry Shamet. Against the Rockets, he spent most of his night guarding Daishen Nix, Josh Christopher and Garrison Matthews. Hardly a murdeders’ row of scorers. That’s not his fault, it’s just what happens when playing against opposing second units. But it also makes it difficult to measure if he’s back to his all-pro defensive standards.
Offensively, Oladipo at his best is a drive-and-kick operator who can generate easier looks for Herro. But even after 11 months of rehab and a couple of 5-on-5 scrimmages with Miami’s G League affiliate in Sioux Falls, Oladipo is still shaking off cobwebs.
There were times during the Heat’s 111-90 loss to the Suns Wednesday that Oladipo just looked slow, struggling to turn the corner around a screen. Again, to be expected as he gets his conditioning back. The Heat are aware of this and have put Oladipo in positions off the ball within their normal offense. Here, he plays off Herro’s pet double drag screen action and gets an open 3-point attempt.
This also frees up Oladipo as an off-ball cutter. Here, he shows great timing cutting from the weakside while Adebayo is occupied in the post.
It’s much too soon to make any conclusions but there’s enough to get excited about.
One thing that may be safe to assume is that if everything tracks the way the organization expects internally, Oladipo will be part of the playoff rotation. Right now that figures to go nine deep: Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, P.J. Tucker, Adebayo, Herro, Oladipo, Dewayne Dedmon and Martin.
(This depends on Martin’s health after he hyper extended his left knee against the Suns. If Martin is out for an extended period, Gabe Vincent or Max Strus could get back into the mix.)
It’s extremely early in this process and things will change as Oladipo gets his legs and rhythm back. His stats won’t resemble that of his All-Star campaigns, but the Heat are merely asking him to star within his role. Oladipo’s usage rate of 19.9% is by far a career low. That could simply be a matter of the Heat taking it slow, but consider that he’ll play most of his minutes with Herro and it doesn’t seem likely that his usage rate will tick a whole lot higher.
Perhaps Oladipo, who turns 30 in May, can become Miami’s version of Golden State Warriors-era Andre Iguodala — a former All-Star turned do-everything glue guy that unlocks the team’s most versatile lineups.
It’s important to note that Miami has Oladipo’s Bird rights this summer and can exceed the cap in order to re-sign him. Or, if he really shows out, he could seek a larger role elsewhere. Considering Oladipo’s affinity for Miami and the organization’s treatment and patience during this latest injury, there’s optimism and a desire on both sides to make this a longterm fit.
Those decisions are months away. For now, Oladipo has more games and the Heat have a postseason to prepare for.
“I know it’s been a long time since I’ve played and I know it’s not going to come overnight,” Oladipo said. “Just got to keep getting ready and keep getting better.”