Miami Heat Weekly: Road woes, Jimmy Butler's 3-point shooting and other issues on offense
The Heat followed a 1-3 homestand with a 1-2 trip.
Last Week Summary
After last Monday’s loss to the Raptors wrapped up a 1-3 homestand to start the season, the Heat (2-5) went on the road for a three-game trip. They beat the Trail Blazers before dropping games against the Warriors and Kings.
Plus-minus players of the week
📈Caleb Martin was a plus-4.7 in three games last week (after serving a one-game suspension).
📉Dewayne Dedmon was a minus-6.0 in two games before suffering a foot injury that sidelined him against the Warriors (Thursday) and Kings (Saturday).
Offensive check-in: The Heat’s offense ranks 24th with a 109.4 offensive rating, with the biggest issue being the team’s inability to score when Jimmy Butler isn’t on the court. With Butler, Miami is scoring 116.8 points per 100 possessions (which would rank seventh in the NBA), per Cleaning the Glass. Without Butler, that mark plummets to 94.5 points per 100 possessions — which would be, by far, the worst offense in the league (the bricky Lakers are 30th with a 100.3 offensive rating).
Defensive check-in: The Heat’s defense ranks 19th with a 112.5 defensive rating. The biggest concern right now is the transition defense, with Miami allowing the most points in the league after a live-ball rebound, per Cleaning the Glass.
Coming up: Tue vs GSW, Wed vs SAC, Fri @ IND
Highlight of the week:
Quote of the week: “Right now, this is about the collective group, how are we going to impact this thing together to impact winning. If we try to do it any other way, it’s going to lead to an incredible amount of frustration. Anybody that is trying to do it on their own or anybody that is trying to self will it or anybody trying to work any individual goals with this, it ain’t going to work, it ain’t going to work on either end.” — Erik Spoelstra
Analysis: Why doesn’t Jimmy Butler take more 3s?
Jimmy Butler is the first to say he doesn’t care about taking 3-pointers, a stubborn zag from the modern game’s emphasis on the long-ball but also a statement of his expert ability to get to the basket.
“I always shoot a lot of 3s (in practice) but then when I get into a game I’m still not going to shoot them,” Butler said before the season. “So you can scout me however you want to, I’m still gonna find a way to get into the paint.”
When Butler said that at media day, part of me wondered if he was bluffing.
After all, the shot that defined last season was his go-ahead 3-pointer that nearly sent the Miami Heat to the NBA Finals. Rather than go downhill and attack a back-peddling Al Horford, Butler with 18 seconds left in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals hoisted a 3-pointer that clacked off the front of the rim. It capped off a historic postseason run in which Butler also doubled his 3-point shooting rate, including taking five, eight and four 3-point attempts in the final three games of Miami’s season.
Butler will always prioritize getting to the basket (and should) but he also proved that he can make 3s at a good enough clip to expand the Heat’s offense, provide space for others such as Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro and age more gracefully in his age-33 season. All things that could help the Heat in the near- and long-term.
There have been signs that Butler is more willing to pull up from deep. In last week’s competitive loss to the Warriors, Butler hoisted seven 3-pointers, making four. He took three in each of the previous two games, more than last season’s average of two per game. This, after attempting just two combined through the first three games of the season. It was an indication that Butler may have finally decided it’s time to become a more willing 3-point shooter. Then, on Saturday, he took just one shot from deep.
Butler’s 3-point shooting through the first seven games:
vs CHI: 0 for 0
vs BOS: 0 for 1
vs TOR: 1 for 1
vs TOR: 2 for 3
at POR: 0 for 3
at GSW: 4 for 7
at SAC: 0 for 1
The Heat have plenty of problems on offense, the least of which has anything to do with Butler. As Erik Spoelstra recently indicated, players trying to single-handedly will the offense is a reason why Miami has struggled to close out games and has seen its record slip to 2-5 through the first two weeks of the season.
Still, Butler being a legitimate floor spacer can help raise the ceiling of this Heat offense after they eventually solidify the floor.
A career 32% 3-point shooter, Butler doesn’t have the typical marks of someone defenses must respect from deep. But that mark inexplicably rises to 34.4% in the postseason for his career. Also, his career 84% free throw shooting clip is a mark typically associated with a good outside shooter.
So why won’t Butler just, y’know, take more 3s?
Maybe it’s as simple as Butler being a streaky shooter and knowing when he’s feeling it. To get to the bottom of it, I consulted Andrew Salop, a former pro basketball player and host of the “Combo’s Court” podcast.
“Jimmy has always been a good shooter as his free throw shooting has indicated throughout his career. The change with his 3-point shot is he’s shooting more of a set shot and is not jumping as high as he has in the past. The energy transfer is better as the ball is moving in more of a perpetual motion. It could be at times a tougher shot to get off because of the lack of elevation but it looks to be a more accurate shot motion for Jimmy.”
In other words, Butler has worked on improving his shooting form. Videos on social media show him drilling it with Instafamous skills coach Chris Brickley. He’s confident enough to take a 3-pointer to save his season but unwilling to make it a nightly factor in his game.
Again, the Heat have much bigger issues right now than Butler’s 3-point attempt rate, but him being more willing would also help the team reach its goal of taking more 3s. Currently, the Heat are attempting just 32.4 3s per game, down from 35.8 last season. The Heat want to be closer to 40 per game, but have reached that mark only once all season, when they took 43 in last week’s loss to the Warriors. The result was keeping pace with the best 3-point shooting team of the last decade.
Butler taking more 3s won’t save Miami’s offense, but it is a sign of when the offense is operating at its best.
Stories You Might Have Missed
Scott Cacciola of the New York Times visited Butler’s junior college in Tyler, Texas, for this story about where his basketball career began. “It was the first time that someone actually took a chance on me.”
First-round pick Nikola Jovic made his NBA debut this past week. Here’s the Miami Herald’s write-up on how he played and where he can improve. “He’s going to be good,” Kyle Lowry said.
Intel: Udonis Haslem attended Kelly Olynyk’s wedding over the summer and, according to the Sun-Sentinel’s Ira Winderman, the two discussed trying to bring Olynyk back to Miami. Instead, Olynyk was traded from Detroit to the rebuilding Utah Jazz. But with the Jazz still making most players available, could the Heat still trade for Olynyk?