'Tough Decisions': 15 Thoughts on the Heat's Looming Rotation Questions
Plus a prediction for the playoffs.
With the Heat down one in the opening moments of the fourth quarter of Wednesday night’s game against the Trail Blazers, Gabe Vincent saw an opportunity to make the sort of hustle play that has earned him minutes in Miami’s constantly-in-flux rotation this season.
Portland’s Dennis Smith Jr. was coming off a screen and had the ball knocked out of his hands by Dewayne Dedmon. The ball bounced between Smith and Ben McLemore, and should have been easily recovered by a Trail Blazers. Instead, Vincent came diving in from nine feet away, snatched up the ball and flipped it to P.J. Tucker, who found Dedmon for a rim-shaking, one-handed dunk that changed the course of the game.
The Heat outscored the Trail Blazers 20-9 en route to their 29th win of the season. After the game, Bam Adebayo credited Vincent for the inspiring play. “Those are momentum swings,” Adebayo said. “You can definitely tell it means a lot to us.”
Vincent started in place of Kyle Lowry, who missed his second straight game for undisclosed personal reasons, and played a team-high 37 minutes. Prior to filling in for Lowry, Vincent had been out of the rotation against the 76ers earlier in the week. But because of plays — and games — like this one, it’s becoming harder for coach Erik Spoelstra to leave Vincent on the bench.
In fact, Spoelstra has this problem with several players. In addition to Vincent, Caleb Martin and Max Strus are closing games and have earned rotation spots even when the Heat are healthy. And although Omer Yurtseven hasn’t played since Adebayo returned from a 22-game absence, Spoelstra has considered inserting the skilled center into games this week.
But Spoelstra also realizes that once the Heat are healthy, developing a regular rotation and chemistry is important as they ramp up to the postseason.
“To play for something special, you need depth, you need talent, and I think everybody in our locker room feels extremely capable if we have to go deep into our roster,” Spoelstra said.
“That’s going to require some sacrifice,” he continued. “There will be some tough decisions.”
So where does this leave the Heat’s rotation once Lowry returns and Tyler Herro is out of health and safety protocols? Some assembled thoughts…
1.) Here’s a look at Miami’s current rotation.
This is the starting lineup that was expected to open the season. It’s also Miami’s most-used lineup, although that doesn’t say much given the rash of injuries the team has navigated this season. In 185 minutes, Lowry, Robinson, Butler, Tucker and Adebayo have posted a clampy 96.5 defensive rating and have outscored opponents by 8.6 points per 100 possessions. The quartet of Lowry, Butler, Tucker and Adebayo have a defensive rating of 99.3 in 206 minutes — which would be the best defensive mark in the league by a mile.
2.) The rotation is filled out by Dedmon as Adebayo’s primary backup, Strus and Martin — who have earned nightly rotation minutes with their shooting and, in Martin’s case, on-ball defense — and Herro getting starter-like minutes as a super-sixth man.
3.) That’s nine players, right where Spoelstra prefers to keep his rotations, before factoring in Vincent, Victor Oladipo and Markieff Morris.
4.) It’s unclear if/when Morris will play again this season but, at this point, it’s safe to assume Martin has taken those minutes.
5.) For now, it’s safe to assume Dedmon continues to get the backup center minutes and Yurtseven returns to developing behind the scenes.
6.) Spoelstra will have to find minutes for Oladipo once he returns. He could expand the rotation to give Oladipo a test drive and then, depending on how Oladipo looks, make a decision from there. If Oladipo can be an effective 3-point shooter like he was in his two All-Star seasons from 2017 to 2019, he could take minutes from Robinson or Strus. If he gets back to being a fringe All-NBA defender, maybe he takes Martin’s minutes. If he’s more of a backup playmaker, he could nab whatever minutes are left for Vincent.
7.) Don’t just assume Oladipo will be getting playoff minutes. No one knows what he’ll look like when he returns and it’s possible he can be outplayed by Miami’s in-rhythm role players.
8.) To find Vincent minutes in a nine-man rotation, it looks like it will come at the expense of either Robinson or Strus.
9.) Robinson has returned to the starting lineup but isn’t closing games. While Robinson is sixth on the team in minutes per game, he ranks 10th in fourth-quarter minutes, behind Strus (third in fourth-quarter minutes), Vincent (fifth), and Martin (sixth).
10.) Strus is leading the team in 3-pointers made per 36 minutes and is shooting a 41.7% clip from distance. Robinson, meanwhile, is shooting 34.8% this season, down from his career rate of 40.6%.
11.) This could be Robinson’s last opportunity. While the chemistry with Adebayo in the starting lineup is undeniable, his defense (especially his fouling) remains a concern. If Robinson doesn’t ascend the to mean quickly, he could be the odd-man out.
12.) That could be for Vincent, who is shooting 37.7% on 3s and provides great defense and stable playmaking, or Oladipo.
13.) As for the playoffs, don’t rule out Herro being inserted into the starting lineup. Spoelstra made a similar move in the bubble, moving Goran Dragic out of his sixth man role and into the starting point guard spot. Kendrick Nunn, who started most of the season, was out of the rotation entirely. Spoelstra could start Herro at shooting guard, leaving Robinson, Strus, Vincent, Martin and Oladipo vying for two or three rotation spots.
14.) No point in making guesses now. It all depends on how each player performs on the court. When he’s on, Robinson is as lights-out as any shooter East of San Francisco but Strus has been more consistent. Vincent is more versatile than either of them. Martin is combustible. Oladipo is the most experienced.
15.) Let’s revisit Spoelstra’s quote about his rotation one more time: “That’s going to require some sacrifice… There will be some tough decisions.”
🍩 A hair too far: When I swiped to my Apple News app this morning, the first thing that popped up was not Covid-related or even about Meat Loaf or Louie Anderson (RIP), but about Britney Spears’ hair. She apparently dyed it purple, revealing to her 39.1 million Instagram followers with the disturbingly basic caption, “Here’s me with purple hair.” Dating back to when Spears shaved her head, have we as a society ever been more obsessed with any one person’s hair?
This week, a ranking people whose hair we are most obsessed with:
The incomporable Britney Spears, apparently.
Justin Bieber: There’s good (the young sweep, his more recent shorter looks) and bad (this, this and, oh God, this).
Drake: But only when he carves a heart into his fade.
Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, for some reason. Also LeBron’s hair, or what’s left of it.
Any famous person from the 90s.
🍩 What I’m listening to: Earl Sweatshirt’s album SICK!
🍩 What I’m drinking: A sampling of wines from Bright Cellars that my brother got me for Christmas. Got a few malbecs, petit syrahs and whites. So far, so good. Uncorking this one tonight.
Cheers!