Miami Heat Weekly Observations: Relying on Mid-Range and Tyler Herro's Crunch-Time Scoring

This Friday's newsletter takes us through the Miami Heat's games in Denver and back-to-back set in Los Angeles, and a theory about Duncan Robinson's shooting slump.

The story that dominated the Miami Heat this week, the Nikola Jokic-Markieff Morris conflict, was largely resolved when the NBA decided to suspend Jokic for a game and fine Morris $50,000. The discourse around the tangle-up was more ugly than the scuffle itself and I, for one, am happy to focus on some basketball.

With that, let’s get to some observations from this week that saw Miami get lose three straight.

Monday: Heat at Nuggets

There’s an emerging trend that is a bit troubling for Miami: They are incredibly mid-range dependent. Unlike in Saturday’s big win against the Jazz, when the Heat scored 24 mid-range points, they scored just 10 points in the mid-range in Monday’s loss to the Nuggets. In Miami’s other clunker last week, it scored just two of 78 points in the mid-range in a loss to the Celtics. Against the Lakers, only 10 of 117.

Fewer of Miami’s points are coming at the rim or from beyond the arc this season. The Heat rank 21st in made 3-pointers per game and 27th in shots made in the restricted area. This is because they have leaned into old-school, gladiator basketball. There’s a lot of isolation, traditional pick-and-roll and post-ups.

Jimmy Butler is an iso bully. When smaller players get switched on him, he backs them down and takes their lunch money. You can practically see Pat Riley leaning back into a leather armchair, sipping Don Julio 1942 in admiration.

Butler was the only Heat player (31 points) to score effectively in Denver. Bam Adebayo had trouble with the Nuggets’ size (3 for 10 shooting). For the season, his post-ups are yielding below-average points per possession, a trend I wrote about after the first week of the season. As I predicted then, Adebayo’s post-up frequency has started to wane, but a bunch of his shot attempts are long 2s (13.5%), and he has yet to take a 3-pointer this season. Eventually, Adebayo will have to step back and turn these long 2s into 3s. When that happens, it will nudge Miami’s shot distribution in a more efficient direction.

Then there’s Tyler Herro, the Heat’s leader in shot attempts at 17.8 per game. His mid-range game is vastly improved from last year, and it’s what makes him the ultimate ceiling raiser for this team (more on that in a moment). But it’s also another reason the Heat’s shot chart is skewed so much to the middle.

The good news for the Heat is that the offense is built for the post-season, when mid-range virtuosos — from Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Khris Middleton — swing title chases. This is part of the formula that Miami used in their bubble run to the Finals.

The bad news for the Heat is that against long, switching teams such as Denver and Boston, they have a hard time getting these mid-range shots off. And when that mid-range shot isn’t falling, they don’t have much recourse.

Wednesday: Heat at Lakers

Yes, the Heat blew a nine-point, fourth-quarter lead in this 120-117 overtime loss to the Lakers; and, yes, they lost Jimmy Butler to an untimely ankle sprain in the first quarter. But let us instead focus on the silver lining: Tyler Herro.

Herro finished the game with 27 points on 11 for 22 shooting (5 for 8 from 3-point range) in 42 minutes. The biggest difference in Herro’s game from last season is his decisiveness and footwork. He is in constant motion, and only needs a sliver of space to get his shot off. His first step has improved to the point of being elite, as has his ability to stop on a dime and get into his shooting motion. These are tough shots he makes look easy.

Even with Butler, there’s no one else quite like Herro on Miami’s roster, and the Heat went to him in the biggest moments.

After Russell Westbrook banked in a 17-footer and Malik Monk converted a pair of free throws to put the Lakers up three with 9:25 remaining in regulation, the Heat turned to Herro. Erik Spoelstra drew up an inbounds play to set up Herro for a pullup jumper off a Dewayne Dedmon screen. A minute later, Herro confidently drilled a 3-pointer that put the Heat back up 95-93. He then hit a contested jumper over Avery Bradley to push the lead to seven. And his scrambling foul-line jumper tied the game after Miami let slip a nine-point lead with 45 seconds left.

Between the fourth quarter and overtime, Herro attempted a team-high 10 shots. Unfortunately for him, he missed his final four, including a pair of 3-pointers in overtime that could have either won or tied the game.

On the first attempt, Herro rushed his shot. Down two with 10 seconds still on the game clock, there was time and space for Herro to drive and try for the tie. Here’s the clip:

Herro could have worked it a bit more to get to a better spot. With Anthony Davis planted in the corner guarding P.J. Tucker, only Carmelo Anthony was under the rim. But with both Westbrook and Davis in his field of vision, it’s easy to see why Herro opted to take the jumper.

“The first one, I felt like it was a good look,” Herro said. “I probably could have gotten a better one.”

He got that better look on the second attempt. This time down three with 6.5 seconds to go, the Heat needed a 3-pointer. Spoelstra drew up an elevator-doors action, with Tucker and Dedmon setting the screens. Here’s the clip:

Bradley got trapped, and Davis was slow to close out. But like a wide receiver turning up field too early, Herro didn’t look the pass into his hands and bobbled it. Even with the fumble, Herro got off a clean look but it clanged out.

“Great look,” Herro said. “I make that shot nine times out of 10. It is what it is. Move on, learn from it.”

Learning to make the right read and focus on the details will come with time. Herro is 21. What’s clear is that he has the ability to be a go-to scorer in crunch time, and that Heat coaches and teammates trust him when the stakes are high.

“Tyler wants those moments,” Spoelstra said. “He’s a clutch player.”

Thursday: Heat at Clippers

One of the reasons Lowry’s scoring is down is because he’s not getting to the basket as much compared to previous years. Over the last couple of seasons in Toronto, Lowry averaged about 10 drives per game. This season, that number is slashed in half, to 5.3.

Chalk some of this up to Lowry navigating his way on a new team and ceding similar opportunities to Butler, Adebayo and Herro. But when called upon, Lowry showed in the fourth quarter of Miami’s 120-117 loss to the Clippers that he’s not washed yet.

After scoring just three points in the first three quarters, Lowry erupted for 22 fourth-quarter bones to help the Heat rally from an 11-point deficit and nearly steal a win on the road on the second night of a back-to-back. In that period alone, Lowry scored on four drives. Here they are:

Lowry is not an above-the-rim athlete, but he uses angles and timing well to wrong-foot defenders and create advantages of leverage. His hesitation dribble is a steady weapon, and his ability to slow down and speed up multiple times in the same incursion leaves defenders spinning. This version of Lowry is fun to watch.

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Duncan Robinson’s slump

A lot has been made of Duncan Robinson’s season-opening shooting slump. Last season, Robinson was one of the NBA’s best five shooters, converting 40.8% of 8.5 attempts per game. Through 12 games, he is 34 for 109 (31.2%) on 3-point attempts.

Now before diving into my theory as to why Robinson is slumping, I’ll point out first that this is a very small sample size. Shooters’ averages go through peaks and valleys. This is a deep valley, but there will be a progression to the mean.

Part of it has to do with Miami’s changing offense. As Couper Moorhead wrote last week, Robinson isn’t getting as many attempts from dribble handoffs — a pet play for him and the Heat since the bubble that they have gotten away from.

Over the last two years, the Heat led the league in frequency of shot attempts off handoffs (8.8% two seasons ago, 7.8% last season). This season, that number is down to 5.8%, closer to league-average. They have gone gladiator, and Robinson so far has been left to deal with the lions.

This season, Robinson has seen a bump in his clean catch-and-shoot looks, but he’s making just 29.1% of such shots. One would think shooting from a standstill position would be easier than shooting on the move, even if that’s one of Robinson’s best skills. That number will improve.

But Robinson could help himself by moving without the ball more. Last season, Robinson traveled an average of 1.33 miles per game on offense. This season, he’s down to 1.21 miles per game. He’s also running slower, from an average speed of 4.81 miles per hour to 4.68 miles per hour, giving defenders a better chance to contest.

It’s not as if Robinson has gotten lazy. This can be traced back to the change in scheme and personnel.

With fewer scripted plays, Robinson has to probe for openings. Instead of sprinting into a handoff from Adebayo, now he’s looking for spaces to occupy while Butler works in isolation or Adebayo posts up.

The thing is, that space is usually occupied by Tucker, an elite corner 3-point shooter who doesn’t do much else from other spots on the floor. So opportunities to fill the corner go to Tucker, while Robinson searches for whatever is left.

This has resulted in Robinson and Tucker spending several possessions in negotiations.

In this clip from Wednesday’s loss to the Lakers, you can see Robinson wants to move off the ball while Lowry operates. He looks to his left and sees Tucker in the corner and Adebayo on the baseline. On the other side, Butler is taking a possession off. Tucker smartly realizes the offense has stalled. He’s on his way to set a screen for Robinson but Lowry dishes early. Robinson is left with a tough, contested jumper.

But you can also see Robinson and Tucker learning to dance together.

Later in the same game, Robinson signals to Tucker to screen off the weakside defender, Kent Bazemore. Herro ends up dumping off to Udonis Haslem, but if he would have slung the pass to Robinson in the corner, dollars to donuts he sinks it.

Here’s an example of this waltz working. Again, Robinson calls for the screen while Lowry navigates a pick-and-roll in the middle of the floor. Tucker’s hammer screen lands, and Robinson nails the corner jumper.

This developing dance is worth watching, and could ultimately alleviate Robinson of the yips. (He’s also shooting a career-low from the free-throw line, including two big shots down the stretch against the Lakers. He’s in his head.)

The Heat could consider separating Robinson and Tucker some. More than 83% of Robinson’s minutes are tethered to Tucker. In that small allotment when Robinson is not on the court with Tucker, his 3-point percentage is actually up slightly (from 32.1% to 35.7% before Thursday night). But the Heat likely tie their minutes together for defensive purposes, and Tucker is an awesome screener.

Ultimately, Robinson will have to get more creative. These negotiations with Tucker are a good start, but Robinson can also learn from the likes of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, or a mentor such as Ray Allen about optimizing his movement off the ball.

This stuff is hard and takes a long time to master. Robinson is being forced to learn on the fly, and he’s clearly down on confidence. His misses late against the Lakers and Clippers were wide-open looks great shooters should make regardless of the system. Robinson will naturally start making more shots — it’s not as if he forgot how to shoot. But moving off the ball more effectively will go a long way in establishing his rhythm and unlocking Miami’s offense.