One Week Later: Bam Adebayo's Impact and More Miami Heat Observations
Plus, has Omer Yurtseven earned a longterm spot in the Heat rotation?
Five observations from the week that was for the Miami Heat…
1. Bam Adebayo’s Return
During Saturday night’s loss to the 76ers at FTX Arena, Caleb Martin turned to Bam Adebayo on the bench to talk about the star center’s imminent return.
"You can tell he's itching bad,” Martin said.
It’s been six weeks since Adebayo underwent surgery to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb. ESPN reported last week that Adebayo is targeting a return Monday night against the Toronto Raptors.
"He'll be back soon enough,” coach Erik Spoelstra said before Friday’s win against the Hawks, acknowledging ESPN’s report but being careful not to confirm it. “He is ready. As soon as gets cleared, I don't think there will be a major ramp-up or anything."
This is big news for a Heat team that is finally starting to show signs of missing Adebayo. Even though Miami has won four of its last five games, it has posted a leaky defensive rating of 109.8 in those matchups. Since the start of January, the Heat rank 16th in defensive rating. They ranked 10th prior to Adebayo’s 22-game absence.
While Omer Yurtseven and Dewayne Dedmon have done an admirable job manning the middle, opponents have had success stretching Miami’s defense, forcing Yurtseven or Dedmon to defend in space by placing their centers beyond the 3-point line or drawing them into high pick-and-rolls.
Inserting Adebayo at center will help. Adebayo is Miami’s most versatile defender, capable of patrolling large swaths of the court with his athleticism, anticipation and timing.
There will be kinks to work out on offense. Since becoming Miami’s starting center, Yurtseven is averaging 11 shot attempts per game — most of which are dunks and putbacks. Adebayo is averaging 13.5 shot attempts this season and will have a steady diet of mid-range jumpers and push shots from the free-throw line. Those shot attempts could come at the expense of Miami’s 3-point shooting, which has ticked up in Adebayo’s absence.
This isn’t to say that the Heat will be worse with Adebayo, only that they will have to find a way to balance his mid-range tendencies (and Jimmy Butler’s) along with Miami’s newfound crop of shooters. Spoelstra will tinker, but certainly Adebayo will elevate the Heat’s defense to a championship-caliber unit.
2. Omer Yurtseven Making Himself Available
There’s a lot to like about Yurtseven’s season, especially his recent stretch of 14 straight games of double-digit rebounds. That’s the longest stretch by a rookie since 2016, when Karl-Anthony Towns hauled in double-digit rebounds in 15 straight games.
In Saturday’s loss to the 76ers, Yurtseven finished with 22 points on 10 for 12 shooting and 11 rebounds in a matchup against Joel Embiid. Though Embiid finished with the superior line (32 points and 12 rebounds) and the win, Yurtseven got the better of him early, racking up 10 points on 5 for 6 shooting and six rebounds in th first quarter.
What stands out about Yurtseven’s game, aside from the rebounding, is how he makes himself available. This may seem like a little thing, but it’s not. His timing on the pick-and-roll has improved a ton since he started getting rotation minutes and he’s developed into a savvy cutter.
Here’s one example from Saturday night. Once Butler gets the ball in the mid-post, most centers these days would have roosted beyond the arc in order to space the floor. In fact, you can see all of Miami’s shooters do just that. Except for Yurtseven, who sees Embiid going to double Butler. As soon as Embiid takes a step toward Butler, Yurtseven dives to the rim. He puts both hands up and makes eye contact with Butler, who flings the pass his way for an easy dunk.
Yurtseven has done enough to remain a constant part of the rotation when Adebayo returns. The question is: Has he done enough to overtake Dedmon as the second-string center? Miami’s offensive rating is slightly better with Yurtseven on the court, and the defensive rating is slightly better with Dedmon. Both have played well in extended minutes. It could be matchup dependent, with Spoelstra going with Dedmon to defend bigger, more traditional centers, and Yurtseven when he needs to juice the offense. Though I suspect Spoelstra would prefer more regularity in the regular season.
With how much Yurtseven has improved on both ends, a strong case could be made to keep playing Yurtseven.
3. Duncan Robinson Trade
On Jan. 15, Duncan Robinson became eligible to be traded. (Because he received a larger-than-normal raise when he signed a five-year, $90 million contract last summer, his trade eligibility was pushed a month later than most free-agent signings.)
Once again, Robinson finds himself in a mini-shooting slump, making just three of his last 20 3-point attempts since an 8 for 16 night in Phoenix last weekend. That combined with his trade eligibility has reinvigorated calls from a vocal cohort of Heat fans to “Trade Duncan.”
While I’m not nearly as worried about Robinson as some (he was shooting 42.4% on 3s in his last 15 games prior to this last slump and defenses still close out on him like he’s one of the league’s top shooters), the fact that Miami appears to have a wealth of shooters and the nature of his contract ($15.5 million this year) makes him the only player the Heat can move and still bring back a considerable rotation piece.
So I’ll play your game. What could trading Robinson bring back for the Heat?
A quick scan of comparable salaries (Miami can’t bring back more than what Robinson makes because of trade rules and how close they are to the luxury tax already) doesn’t produce the most exciting list — players such as Will Barton, T.J. Warren and Terrence Ross. But some names could be worth considering:
Would Boston trade the defensively-inclined Marcus Smart for additional spacing?
Portland’s Robert Covington, who could give the Heat another defender capable of making spot-up 3s.
Utah’s Joe Ingles, another savvy veteran who, even at this late stage, offers more playmaking and maybe even more defense than Robinson.
I’d say no to Ingles, who is not nearly the player he was a couple of years ago and has seen his playing time diminish greatly in Utah. It’s hard to see the benefit of acquiring Smart given that the Heat already have Kyle Lowry and are happy with Tyler Herro running the second-unit offense. As for Covington, he’s always been the ultimate “Grass is Always Greener” player for fanbases jonesing for a shakeup. He’s only a career 35.5% 3-point shooter, can’t do much off the dribble and, as the Trail Blazers have discovered this season, not as stout a one-on-one defender as his reputation makes him out to be.
It’s difficult to find a deal that is a clear upgrade for the Heat, and there’s something to be said about having multiple shooters on the roster. I’ll be very surprised if Robinson isn’t still on the Heat after the Feb. 10 trade deadline.
4. Miami’s Hammer Lineup
During the last few minutes of a back-and-forth affair against the Hawks Friday, the Heat closed with a lineup of Lowry, Butler, Herro, Martin and Tucker. In five minutes, that unit shot 44.4%, recorded two blocks, two steals and outscored the Hawks by 11 points.
It’s easy to see why that group thrived. It gives Miami enough off-the-dribble shot creation (Lowry, Butler and Herro), shooting (Herro, Martin and Tucker), size (Tucker, Butler, Martin, Lowry’s ass) and on-ball defenders (Lowry, Butler, Martin and Tucker). They can switch everything, space the floor and blast mismatches in transition. That lineup played just two minutes against the oversized 76ers, but Spoelstra at least tried it.
Mostly because of injuries and protocols, the Heat haven’t found a hammer lineup yet this season — their version of a Death Lineup Spoelstra can turn to in a pinch. This is the closest thing Spo has rolled out.
When Adebayo returns, he’ll demand a spot in that unit. But where? Although he’s as versatile as any of Miami’s defenders, he’s not a floor spacer. Taking Martin off the court essentially brings Miami back to the starting lineup with Herro in place of Robinson/Strus. Not exactly the change of pace a hammer lineup intends to force. Most likely, Adebayo takes Tucker’s place. While the Heat would sacrifice a bit in terms of spacing, it’s hard to take an on-ball defending wing such as Martin (who can also shoot) off the court. Spoelstra went to this lineup a few times early in the season, and it’s a good bet that we’ll see it again.
We discussed this question and more on Friday’s episode of Locked On Heat.
5. A Wide-Open East?
Q: How does Kevin Durant’s latest injury impact the Heat’s chances in the East? - Marcus.
The Nets announced Sunday that Kevin Durant has been diagnosed with a sprained MCL in his left knee after a collision during Saturday’s game against the Pelicans and that there is no timetable for his return. ESPN reports he could be out 4-to-6 weeks.
With four months left in the season, this isn’t a killer for the Nets. Even if Durant misses six weeks the Nets will still have about 20 games to ramp up to the playoffs.
It does, however, mean that Brooklyn will be fighting for seeding in the East. The Nets are 3-3 in games without Durant this season and have Kyrie Irving back for road games, but it’s hard to envision them hanging onto a top-three spot in the East with Chicago, Miami and Milwaukee all within a game in the standings. Then there’s Philadelphia and Cleveland lingering two games back. Brooklyn’s also just 4.5 games out of the play-in, and it wouldn’t be shocking if the Nets slid to play-in position by the time Durant returns.
This means the race for the No. 1 seed is down to three teams: the Heat, Bulls and Bucks. With the Heat getting healthy and facing the league’s third-easiest remaining schedule, they are well-positioned to make a run and earn homecourt in the playoffs.
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