Inside the Heat's Nightmare Week, and How They Can Turn Things Around Before the Playoffs
After four straight losses, the Heat have lost their hold on the top seed in the East.
Little more than a week ago, the Heat were well positioned to lock up the top seed in the East. But after dropping four straight games, the Heat are in danger of tumbling all the way to fourth place.
“It certainly hasn’t been our best week,” said assistant coach Chris Quinn after Saturday’s 110-95 loss to the Nets.
Losses against the 76ers, Warriors, Knicks and Nets have narrowed the gap at the top of the conference standings. As of Monday morning, Miami is tied with the Celtics for the East’s best record at 47-28, and just a half-game up on the Bucks and 76ers. With only a couple weeks left in the regular season and the standings that close, seeds 1-4 can change every day. For the Heat, the No. 1 seed no longer appears to be a safe bet.
The Heat are on track to own tie-breakers over Philadelphia and Milwaukee, but will not own the tie-breaker with Boston should they have the same record at the end of the season.
But, right now, seeding is not Miami’s chief concern. After four disappointing losses in which the Heat lost to 76ers and Warriors groups missing their best players, blew a 17-point, fourth-quarter lead to the Knicks and dug themselves their largest deficit of the season in Saturday’s loss to the Nets, the Heat are struggling to recover the two-way balance that made them one of the most consistent teams in the league over the first five months of the season.
And with just nine games left, reversion needs to happen quickly.
“We’re at that point where we’re not concerned but, yeah, we have to fix some stuff,” Kyle Lowry said Saturday night. “We need to figure some things out.”
The biggest drop-off over the last week has been on defense. The Heat gave up at least 110 points to each of their last four opponents and that leakiness is reflected in their defensive rating. Miami went from allowing 107.5 points per 100 possessions to 119.9 per 100 possessions in the last four games. That’s the difference between the fifth-rated defensive unit in the league to the 23rd.
There are a number of factors at play, not limited to rotation changes and fatigue. Lowry has pointed to the fact that the Heat are attempting to bring rusty contributors Victor Oladipo and Markieff Morris into the fold after lengthy absences. Oladipo and Morris have gotten minutes over previous rotation staples such as Max Strus and Dewayne Dedmon.
There’s a natural curve that comes with chemistry building, and Lowry recently remarked that “We still have some indecisiveness with coverages.” But that’s not necessarily an excuse for the lack of communication that Lowry is alluding to.
There have been too many instances of blown coverages that we simply didn’t see for most of the season: Opponents cutting behind the defense or leaking out for open 3s.
In transition, the Heat allowed an average 21 points off turnovers over the last four games. Although the raw number of turnovers Miami is committing has remained stable, it’s the nature of the turnovers and ho-hum transition defense that is leading to the uptick in easy points for opponents.
Here against the Nets, Lowry throws an off-target pass to Bam Adebayo that turns into a Brooklyn fastbreak. In transition, Lowry and Herro don’t communicate who should pick up the sprinting Nic Claxton. Easy dunk.
Turnovers are always bad but these kinds of turnovers, ones near the top of the key, give opponents an easy path in transition that is difficult to defend. The Heat are giving these up with more frequency.
“We have to find ways to get more shots on goal, less turnovers,” Lowry said.
Added Erik Spoelstra: “I’ve got to figure out how I can help us get in more of a flow.”
Rebounding has also been an issue. Here against the Knicks, not only do Miami’s defenders fail to rotate and give up an open look to Evan Fournier (a near-40% 3-point shooter) in the corner, but with all five Heat players positioned in the paint they still give up the offensive rebound and put-back.
Over this past week, Miami’s opponents have gone from rebounding 9.9% of their misses per 100 possessions to 12.6%, and scored an average of 17.8 second-chance points per game.
“There were a lot of glitches,” Spoelstra said. He added the team needs to do a better job of boxing out and hustling for 50-50 balls.
While possessions like the one against the Knicks are inexcusable, it isn’t a systematic or personnel issue. This is clearly a team that is tired. Perhaps this is a natural ebb in a long, 82-game season (an ebb that the Heat have managed to avoid until now). It’s also worth pointing out that core players such as Tyler Herro (knee), Caleb Martin (calf), P.J. Tucker (knee), Gabe Vincent (toe) and Jimmy Butler (ankle) have been nursing injuries.
The slippage in rebounding, communication and transition defense (as well as the small uptick in fouls committed) are all indicators of fatigue.
And though much of the public discourse has been rooted in Miami’s struggles to create late-game offense, that too traces back to defense. The Heat have been an average half-court offense all season, and mostly create their offensive momentum by getting stops. Right now, they aren’t getting those stops, and that forces them to try to score in the half-court too often.
“I don’t think offense is that much of a problem,” Butler said. “We got to figure out a way to get stops down the stretch. And when we get stops we get to play in the open floor.”
However, identifying the issue and solving it are different things. Unless the Heat are comfortable falling behind the Celtics, Bucks and 76ers in the standings, it’s too late in the season to give players extended rest. If they are tired or injured, the only option now is to push through and find a reserve of energy.
(It’s been theorized that this is why Spoelstra escalated last week’s sideline argument with Butler, perhaps attempting to light a fire under his best player. Butler scored 30 points against the Knicks, but then went just 2 for 9 for seven points against the Nets.)
“There’s ups and downs to everything,'“ Herro said. “You embrace the lows just as much as you embrace the highs. This is what is going to make us at the end of the day.”