Heat-Celtics ECF preview: Biggest questions, key matchups and predictions
Can the Heat get enough scoring besides Jimmy Butler? It will be on Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro to step up.
It was the Miami Heat’s loss to the Boston Celtics in January that served as an inflection point for Bam Adebayo’s season. Adebayo had attempted just 11 shots — as many as role player Caleb Martin — as the Heat lost by 30. On the flight after the game, Adebayo vowed to be more aggressive. For the remainder of the regular season, Adebayo attempted more shots, got to the rim more often and saw his shooting percentage rise by more than 8% and score nearly three more points per game (from 17.6 to 20.3).
The playoffs, however, have been a different story. With Jimmy Butler taking a more hands-on approach to bucket-getting, Adebayo has retreated offensively, averaging just 14.6 points on 8.7 shot attempts per game. Partly responsible for Adebayo’s passivity is that he spent most of his energy in the last series attempting to prevent Joel Embiid from catching the ball.
Make no mistake, despite his pedestrian scoring numbers, Adebayo has still arguably been Miami’s second-best player in the playoffs because of how impactful he has been on defense. But to beat the Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals, which start Tuesday night in Miami, Adebayo will need to rediscover the offensive aggression that he tapped into that night in January.
This is where we begin with the biggest questions facing the Heat in this matchup against the Celtics.
Can Adebayo be more of an offensive force?
In the first two games of the Sixers series, Adebayo scored 24 points and 23 points — his two highest point totals of the playoffs. With Embiid still sidelined with an orbital bone fracture, Adebayo soared over DeAndre Jordan and Paul Reed with a frictionless parade of pick-and-rolls. Once Embiid entered the series and plugged the paint, those open lanes to the basket evaporated and Adebayo averaged only 13 points on 8.3 attempts per game.
The Celtics defense doesn’t offer the interior presence of Embiid, but does present other challenges. While Adebayo will have an athletic advantage over Al Horford, Daniel Theis, Robert Williams III and Grant Williams, the Celtics’ switch-everything defense is extremely connected, versatile and owns the No. 1 defensive rating in the league. Finding creases won’t be easy.
That means Adebayo, more often than not, will have to force the issue. When these two teams met in the conference finals two seasons ago, Adebayo 21.8 points on 59.7% shooting. Both teams have changed a lot since then, including the emergence of Williams III and Williams on defense and the reintroduction of Horford. The Celtics are more stout in the paint, but that didn’t stop Adebayo from attacking them during the regular season. Like in 2019, Adebayo against Boston this season initiated quite a bit of offense out of dribble handoffs with Miami’s guards. Here’s an example from the Heat’s eight-point win in March.
According to Synergy, the Celtics rank among the best teams in the playoffs in defending pick-and-roll ball-handlers (0.76 points per possession) pick-and-roll roll men (0.83 points per possession) and shot attempts off handoffs (0.75 points per possession).
But also consider that they face the isolation-heavy Nets in the first round and the Bucks without their best pick-and-roll ball-handler, Khris Middleton, in the second round, and the Heat present a tougher assignment in this regard. The Heat beat the Celtics in the conference finals two seasons ago because of Adebayo’s two-way impact. They’ll need him to be their second-best player in this series, and for Butler to go toe-to-toe with Jayson Tatum, to advance to the NBA Finals this time around.
Key matchup: Tyler Herro vs Derrick White
The last meeting between these teams on March 30 serves as the most instructive in how this series will play out. The Heat had made the switch to their current starting lineup and both teams were healthy and playing for stakes (seeding in the playoffs). There were several interesting cross-matches in that game, including P.J. Tucker primarily guarding Tatum, Jaylen Brown guarding Jimmy Butler and Marcus Smart mostly guarding Max Strus. But the matchup that could decide this series is between the teams’ two sixth men, Tyler Herro and Derrick White.
In that game, Herro was defended by White nearly 25% of the time and scored just two points on 1 for 3 shooting to go along with two assists and a turnover. White did a good job denying Herro shots, but when Herro did get them off he mostly used a screen to spring himself free. He missed this shot attempt coming off an Adebayo screen, but it was a good look against Boston’s defense even with Tatum getting an arm into the action.
Unlike the 76ers, the Celtics didn’t put two on the ball when Herro came off a screen. Philadelphia’s strategy of consistently trapping did make it hard on Herro, who averaged just 11.3 points on 38.3% shooting after Embiid returned, but it also allowed Butler to work against one-on-one coverage and shred Philadelphia’s defense to end the series.
More likely, Boston will trust its wing defenders to defend Herro one-on-one. That defender figures to mostly be White, one of the better defensive guards in the league who Celtics coach Ime Udoka can send to the scorer’s table when Herro goes to check in.
But Herro is also the Sixth Man of the Year for a reason. His first step is sharp and his pull-up game from any distance must be respected. The Heat will need him to win this matchup and take over for stretches of this series.
This and that
Kyle Lowry (hamstring) was a limited participant in practice the last two days, but has not officially been ruled out for Game 1 on Tuesday. Spoelstra is intentionally keeping intel on Lowry’s status, for now, close to the vest, but it would be surprising if he played Tuesday. The Heat will need him in the series because of his ability to create ad-hoc transition opportunities that could lead to easy points against a stout Boston defense.
For Boston, Udoka told reporters Monday that Robert Williams III will be available with no minutes restriction after missing the last four games with left knee soreness. However, Marcus Smart is questionable for Tuesday’s Game 1 after suffering a mid-foot sprain on Sunday. Udoka said Smart is getting “around-the-clock treatment” to try to be ready to play.
The Celtics shot 37.7% from 3-point range last round against the Bucks, including going 22 of 55 in Sunday’s Game 7. Grant Williams (25 of 61 in the playoffs) and Payton Pritchard (11 of 31), in particular, have been hot. Meanwhile, the Heat shot just 27.9% against the 76ers. If the Heat are going to have any chance in this series, their shooters will need to find their touch from distance.
Prediction
Because of Lowry’s questionable status, I’ll hold off on a prediction. But I do think the Heat have more of a chance than most seem to be giving them. This series will present the toughest defense the Celtics will have played in the playoffs, but the same is true for the Heat. Both teams are well-coached, will take away things from the opponent’s best players and make adjustments game to game. This series will come down to which role players make the most shots. Since I don’t have a prediction, though, here’s one from Butler:
“What I love about this team the most is that nobody is paying attention to what anybody else picks because we know that we can win,” he said. “We’re gonna fight, and we’re gonna come out on top.”