Bam Adebayo's Thumb Injury Could Alter the Miami Heat's Season -- Unless They Do Something About It.
Bam Adebayo will miss 4-6 weeks with a torn Ulnar Collateral Ligament in his right thumb, the Heat announced Wednesday.
Bam Adebayo’s injury was seemingly innocuous at the time, but it could have a potentially season-altering impact on the Miami Heat.
Adebayo, Miami’s starting center and defensive anchor, suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb Monday night against the Denver Nuggets and will undergo surgery this weekend, the team announced Wednesday. Though there was no timeline given publicly, the internal expectation is that Adebayo will miss about six weeks.
This news is unexpected, given that Adebayo finished the game and scored 20 points in the second half, all apparently with a torn thumb ligament. He suffered the injury little more than two minutes into the third quarter. After grabbing an offensive rebound, Adebayo drove the lane and attempted a jump pass to a cutting Kyle Lowry. On the throw, Adebayo’s right hand smacked the hand of Jeff Green. Here’s the clip. You can see Adebayo reach for his right hand after.
He spent the rest of the night clutching at his right hand. When he checked in during the fourth quarter, he had it taped. Asked about it after the game, all Adebayo said was “I’m alright.”
Turns out he wasn’t, and now Miami will be without its most versatile player for six weeks (although those more optimistic believe it could be closer to four). Either way, it’s fair to expect Adebayo to miss the next 15 to 20 games. That’s nearly a quarter of the season, and could be enough time to dramatically shake up the Eastern Conference.
Going into Wednesday night’s matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Heat are 13-8, tied for the third-best record in the East. For a team with championship aspirations, the goal for the foreseeable future now becomes holding onto that position while they await the return of their 24-year-old, All-Star center.
Can the Heat go .500 in that span? Look at the schedule, and even something close to 13-7 is realistic. After all, Miami is 3-0 in games without Adebayo this season. A record in the ballpark of 23-18 or 26-15 by the time Adebayo returns should keep the Heat in the top six of the East and out of the play-in tournament. Currently, there are five teams within a game of each other from places 2-6 in the standings — the Bulls, Heat, Wizards, Bucks and Hornets.
The Bucks are healthy now, have won seven straight and will continue to climb the standings. The Bulls are a strong team that will fight for their pole position. It’s not out of the question that the Wizards and Hornets could come back to Earth a bit. Where does that leave the Heat? Probably still in a decent spot to avoid the play-in tournament, which involves seeds 7-10. Anything can happen in the play-in tournament and a team with an average age north of 30 doesn’t need the extra games.
But this season wasn’t about merely avoiding the play-in tournament. It was about winning the East and getting to the NBA Finals, and homecourt advantage against Milwaukee appeared to be an attainable goal. Injuries to Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro have already caused Miami to cede ground to the Bucks in the race for a top-two seed. Bam’s injury assures Milwaukee will pass.
Can the Heat then hold onto homecourt advantage in the first round? Moves must be made. Dewayne Dedmon will take over as the starting center, and he’s played admirably this season. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra will likely introduce more drop and man-to-man coverages with Dedmon in Adebayo’s place.
Dedmon really should only be playing 25 minutes as a starter, and behind him are unripened bigs KZ Okpala and Omer Yurtseven, both of whom have the two worst plus-minuses on the team as of Wednesday afternoon. Spoelstra will have to play them. He can put Okpala in a zone to take advantage of his range and Yurtseven actually has a decent rebounding rate.
“Both of them have been fully immersed in the Miami Heat player development program,” Spoelstra said of Okpala and Yurtseven before Wednesday’s tip. “I think they're ready."
Ready or not, here the minutes come. This is the ultimate stress test to see if they are legit NBA players. Beyond them, Markieff Morris’ eventual return should help. The Heat believe he can play some center. Perhaps P.J. Tucker can soak up some minutes in small-ball lineups, too.
But the Heat would be wise to add another solid frame to their frontcourt. DeMarcus Cousins recently signed with the Bucks, but other veteran centers such as Aron Baynes, Jahlil Okafor and Meyers Leonard are available. None provide the do-it-all versatility of Adebayo, but they are big bodies who can stand in the lane and rebound — a core tenet for Miami this season.
Fortunately for the Heat, they have an open roster spot. Unfortunately, they are about $400,000 short of the tax. Signing someone to even the minimum would send the Heat well past that line. Prior to Abebayo’s injury, Heat owner Micky Arison preferred to wait until around March to fill the 15th spot and potentially avoid the luxury tax.
Well, he no longer has that luxury.
Despite Adebayo’s injury, this team still has a chance. Missing Adebayo for 20 games doesn’t mean the Heat should give up. It means they should start chasing. Double down. Go out and sign a center, luxury tax be damned. This is part of the deal when owning an NBA team, and none of the fans, coaches or players care about the hurt the luxury tax can have on a billionaire’s bank account. The Heat front office should start working out potential options immediately and sign someone as soon as possible.
Butler is 32, Lowry is 35, Tucker is 36. The championship window is now. By no means has it closed.
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